Downtown Seattle is headed toward a “bloom loop,” business boosters and government officials cheered Tuesday.

Jon Scholes, president of the Downtown Seattle Association and vocal supporter of the city’s business community, coined the phrase, playing off a term that became common place amid the COVID-19 pandemic: the “doom loop.”

As COVID sent workers home, battered retail businesses and generally changed the way people moved about in cities, many academics, business groups and government officials began to worry the pandemic could lead to a permanent cycle of despair.

If people stayed home, more businesses would close. If more businesses closed, sidewalks would stay empty and crime would rise. If sidewalks emptied and crime increased, more people would stay home. And so on.

Now, Seattle officials are optimistic the city has escaped the doom loop and come out on the other side.

“It’s clear we’re making progress after a number of challenging years coming out of COVID,” Scholes said Tuesday at the annual State of Downtown event hosted by the Downtown Seattle Association, which advocates for the business community.

Speaking before business leaders, Scholes, Mayor Bruce Harrell and Gov. Bob Ferguson all expressed optimism for Seattle’s future, and remarked on how far it has come in the five years since the pandemic upended city life.

Though downtown Seattle still struggles with many of the same challenges it faced a year ago — mainly high office vacancy rates, and high rates of violent crime and drug overdose deaths — boosters contend the district is starting to turn a corner.

The number of locals visiting downtown and new office leases surpassed pre-pandemic levels. And the crime rate remained consistent year-over-year, with the last few months of the year showing signs of improvement as the city invested resources in the downtown core.

“2024 was a great year for us,” Harrell said. “And going into 2025, this is when we dig deep.”

Visitors, offices and retail

The number of local visitors — people who live within 10 miles of downtown — reached 1.1 million in 2024, a 20% increase from 2023.

Foot traffic in the Pike-Pine corridor specifically increased from 797,400 local visitors in 2023 to 921,600 last year, marking the first year those blocks saw the number of visits surpass pre-pandemic levels.

In the office space, vacancy rates last year clocked in at 21.5%, remaining at record high levels. But, with 448 new leases in 2024, the downtown area saw the highest rate of newly leased office space since 2019.

The DSA expects to see the uptick in foot traffic and office leases continue in 2025 as the region’s largest private employer, Amazon, brings workers back full-time. Amazon’s return wasn’t reflected in the DSA’s State of Downtown report released Tuesday, but January foot traffic data published earlier this month from the DSA showed Amazon has already made an impact.

In January, Downtown Seattle recorded the second-highest daily average for worker foot traffic since March 2020. It also saw 2 million unique visitors on its sidewalks last month. That represents 94% of the visitors downtown Seattle saw in January 2019.

On the retail front, the area still struggles to compete with other shopping districts, like University Village, Southcenter, Bellevue Square and Alderwood mall, the DSA found.

That trouble predates the pandemic; downtown started to lag behind rival shopping districts as far back as 2017.

Crime and overdose rates

While public drug use remains a concern downtown, the number of overdose deaths from fentanyl there declined by one-third last year.

That matches broader trends across the state and nation. Overdose deaths decreased 24% in the U.S. in the past year, 41% in Washington state and 21.6% in King County.

Eleven percent of the county’s overdose deaths occurred in downtown Seattle in 2024, similar to the percentage in 2023, the DSA reported.

At the same time, the rate of violent crime downtown remained relatively stable, with crime rates rising less than 1% from 2023 to 2024.

The Chinatown International District, considered part of downtown by the DSA, had the highest rate of violent crime downtown last year, but the neighborhood continued to see crime rates decline from a 2022 peak.

In the downtown core, incidents of violent crime dropped 11% in 2024 and 27% in the last four months of the year, compared to the same time frames in 2023.

The DSA attributed that change to the city’s Downtown Activation Team, a project launched in September to address the root causes of street disorder and open-air drug use while beautifying public spaces with art installations, lighting and regular cleanings.

Looking ahead

Over the next few years, Seattle will reap the benefits of major sporting events, new cruise lines, a revamped waterfront park and more public transit options connecting downtown to other parts of the city.

On top of that, downtown will welcome a new arts venue, new pickleball courts and the city’s first Equinox gym location in the Rainier Square building. PCC will return. The renovation of Seattle Center’s Memorial Stadium will get off the ground.

Some improvements already led to more visitors last year, including the opening of the Overlook Walk, which connects Pike Place Market to the waterfront, and the Seattle Aquarium’s Ocean Pavilion. Both projects were part of the 20-acre, $750 million revamped Waterfront Park, which is set to be completed this year.

The next milestone in the Waterfront Park is the Elliott Bay Connect project, according to the DSA, which will revitalize Centennial and Myrtle Edwards parks and create a continuous pedestrian route connecting Pier 62 to Smith Cove, near Pier 91.

The Elliott Bay Connect project is slated to be complete before the 2026 men’s FIFA World Cup, when Seattle will host six games at Lumen Field.

Those matches are expected to generate $929 million for King County between June and July 2026 and create 20,762 jobs, the DSA said.

The Port of Seattle also expects 2025 to be a record cruise season, with an estimated 1.9 million passengers setting off on 299 sailings. Seattle will welcome one new cruise line this year and two new ventures in 2026.

On land, new investments in Sound Transit’s light rail and rapid bus lines have already brought more people downtown and expanded options will continue to grow in 2025. The key stretch of the East Link light rail extension connecting the Eastside to downtown should open late this year.

Concerns about AI

Speaking at the State of Downtown event Tuesday, Harrell was bullish about Seattle’s future — but concerned about the buzzy technology so many of its employers were focused on: artificial intelligence.

Where employers, Wall Street and tech enthusiasts envision an opportunity for innovation, Harrell sees a cybersecurity risk.

“The fact of the matter is when we compete against China, as one example, we also have to concern ourselves about protecting ourselves against China,” Harrell said in his speech. “The list of vulnerabilities that AI presents are pretty significant.”

Harrell has raised those concerns before, he said Tuesday, but the current White House administration has changed the landscape. He pointed to the state of regulation and the new head of the Federal Communications Commission, Brendan Carr, as well as the scores of layoffs affecting federal employees, including those at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, which promotes U.S. innovation and competitiveness.

Seattle has to realize “in the stage of national politics, what we are up against,” Harrell said.

Acknowledging he was going “off script,” Harrell said he “didn’t mean to close on a dire note,” after what had been a positive assessment of downtown’s resurrection.

“We still will make 2025 a phenomenal year for us,” Harrell said. “We are heading in the right direction. We are winners here.”

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