Sam Farmer's Week 16 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 13-3 (.813); season 154-70 (.688). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-7 (.563); season 120-102-2 (.541).

BRONCOS (9-5) AT CHARGERS (8-6)

Thursday, 5:15. p.m.

Line: Chargers by 2 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Chargers are really struggling on offense, and it looks as if losing J.K. Dobbins hurts them more than a lot of people anticipated. There's something to the coach-quarterback combo of Sean Payton and Bo Nix.

Pick: Broncos 24, Chargers 20

TEXANS (9-5) AT CHIEFS (13-1)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 2 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

If Patrick Mahomes plays, he'll be limited. Yes, the Chiefs want the No. 1 seed, but they have some margin for error. The Texans have a legitimate pass rush and enough poise to win this matchup.

Pick: Texans 23, Chiefs 21

STEELERS (10-4) AT RAVENS (9-5)

Saturday, 1:30 p.m.

Line:Ravens by 6 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

These AFC North rivals tend to split, and the Steelers won the first matchup. Both teams should be able to move the ball through the air. This matchup always seems to be a nail-biter.

Pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 23

RAMS (8-6) AT JETS (4-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Rams by 3. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Rams will have a little extra rest and should generate a lot of offense, even against a Jets pass defense that can shine at times. With the NFC West in his sights, Matthew Stafford steps on the gas.

Pick: Rams 28, Jets 20

GIANTS (2-12) AT FALCONS (7-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 8 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Falcons have two of the NFL's worst teams back to back: the banged-up Raiders and the Giants with Tommy DeVito at quarterback. Atlanta is benching Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr.

Pick: Falcons 24, Giants 17

CARDINALS (7-7) AT PANTHERS (3-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Cardinals by 4 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Historically, the Cardinals have not played well at Carolina, and now the Panthers are playing better. But Arizona is a better team and got to 30 against a respectable New England defense.

Pick: Cardinals 27, Panthers 20

LIONS (12-2) AT BEARS (4-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Lions by 6 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Lions are down multiple players, and losing David Montgomery is huge. But Detroit is an elite team and will take a head of steam into the playoffs. Maybe take away a couple of points with Montgomery out.

Pick: Lions 28, Bears 20

TITANS (3-11) AT COLTS (6-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Colts by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

This figures to be close. Leaning toward the Colts because it's difficult to have much belief in that Tennessee offense. Anthony Richardson giveth and taketh away. Go with the home team.

Pick: Colts 24, Titans 20

EAGLES (12-2) AT COMMANDERS (9-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 3 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Jayden Daniels-Terry McLaurin connection is fun to watch, but the Eagles are the more complete team. Philadelphia has so many weapons and a smothering defense.

Pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 20

BROWNS (3-11) AT BENGALS (6-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 7 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Go with the better quarterback, and Cincinnati's Joe Burrow instills a lot of belief in his team. What's more, the Bengals still have a faint postseason pulse. Cleveland's defense is good but on the field a lot.

Pick: Bengals 27, Browns 18

VIKINGS (12-2) AT SEATTLE (8-6)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Vikings by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Seattle typically is one of the tougher places to play, but the Seahawks are 3-5 at home. If Geno Smith is out, Sam Howell is going to have a long day against that Brian Flores defense.

Pick: Vikings 33, Seahawks 17

49ERS (6-8) AT DOLPHINS (6-8)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Dolphins by 1 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Neither team is eliminated, so they're both motivated. San Francisco's defense did a good job of putting the wraps on that Rams offense in the rain. The visitors have enough to win this matchup.

Pick: 49ers 23, Dolphins 20

PATRIOTS (3-11) AT BILLS (11-3)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Bills by 14 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Josh Allen wraps up the MVP award if he hasn't already. The Patriots are playing above their heads, but they'll have a tough time against these Bills. Beating Detroit was a boost for Buffalo.

Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 20

JAGUARS (3-11) AT RAIDERS (2-12)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Raiders by 1 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

Sometimes games are so bad they're good. The Raiders don't have anyone left. Jacksonville has been close in most of its losses. Maybe this is a rare Jaguars win.

Pick: Jaguars 21, Raiders 17

BUCCANEERS (8-6) AT COWBOYS (6-8)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 3 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Buccaneers keep it rolling. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans are something to behold. The Cowboys have won three of four with Cooper Rush. That's got to give them pause.

Pick: Buccaneers 27, Cowboys 23

SAINTS (5-9) AT PACKERS (10-4)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Packers by 14 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The only teams that have beaten the Packers are the Eagles, Vikings and Lions. Green Bay looks battle-tested and ready for the postseason. New Orleans is hanging in there.

Pick: Packers 28, Saints 17