John Romano: How do you solve the conundrum of the Rays' 6-man rotation?

SARASOTA, Fla. — So, you want to be a baseball GM?

Want to make the calls, do the deals, endure the barbs. You want an owner looking over your shoulder, a manager expecting a better roster and the baseball gods occasionally throwing you a curve.

If so, let’s start with this simple challenge:

Should the Rays trade one of their starting pitchers?

This is straight out of the general manager handbook. If you have a surplus of one position, you leverage it to improve a weaker position. And, heaven knows, the Rays could use some added oomph for their lineup. And they have six starters for a five-man rotation, plus intriguing reinforcements slated for Triple A.

A trade in the next three weeks makes perfect sense. Except for this:

— The 2024 Rays rotation: Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot. The rotation never even made it through its first turn. Bradley strained a pec muscle in the spring and began the season on the injured list.

In the last half-dozen seasons (excluding the delayed pandemic campaign), the Rays have failed to get out of April without losing one of their starting pitchers to injury. This isn’t a Rays phenomenon. An MLB study of pitcher injuries discovered that more pitchers are getting hurt during spring training in recent seasons.

And while this is an occupational hazard, the Rays seem uniquely protected this season. Between Shane McClanahan, Bradley, Pepiot, Littell, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz, they have six starters capable of pitching in most rotations. Not to mention, Joe Boyle, Connor Seabold, Ian Seymour and Joe Rock are waiting in the wings. By almost any measure, the Rays are stacked with starting pitching.

— The 2023 Rays rotation: McClanahan, Eflin, Jeffrey Springs, Rasmussen, Josh Fleming. By the season’s 12th game, Eflin was on the injured list with a bad back. Springs blew out his elbow the next day.

Even if you’re confident the Rays can endure an injury, or even two, there is the question of who you trade and what you’re likely to get in return.

Given their age and controllable salaries, Bradley, Pepiot and Baz are probably too valuable to trade unless some team is desperate enough to make a can’t-ignore offer. McClanahan is one of the best pitchers in the game and while his salary may eventually outgrow Tampa Bay, we’re not at that point yet. Rasmussen just signed a contract extension, and the Rays are typically mindful of the commitment and do not immediately flip those players.

That leaves Littell. And the question of what kind of return he can bring.

— The 2022 Rays rotation: McClanahan, Rasmussen, Corey Kluber, Luis Patino and Ryan Yarbrough. Patino went down with an oblique injury in the fourth game, and Yarbrough strained his groin before the fifth game. Also, Baz had minor elbow surgery before spring training ended.

Littell, 29, might be one of the most underrated starters in the game. Since moving into the Rays rotation in 2023, Littell has a 3.56 ERA in 43 starts. For comparison’s sake, Tyler Glasnow has a 3.51 ERA in 43 starts. Eflin has a 3.54 ERA. Zac Gallen has a 3.54.

But even with impressive numbers, Littell is not likely to command a front-line hitter in a trade. The Rays have already upgraded at shortstop and catcher, they have Junior Caminero ready to take over third base for years to come, a former batting champion at first base, a second baseman with 30-homer power and a right fielder with 20-20 potential. That means left field, center field and designated hitter are possible upgrades.

— The 2021 Rays rotation: Glasnow, Yarbrough, Michael Wacha, Chris Archer/Rich Hill and Josh Fleming. By the eighth game, Archer was out with forearm tightness.

So the question is whether it’s worth dealing Littell for possibly marginal improvement in the lineup, or keeping the path open for Jonathan Aranda, Curtis Mead, Jonny DeLuca and Christopher Morel in make-or-break seasons.

Given the possible return, it seems as though Littell is currently more valuable to the Rays on the mound than as a trade chip. Particularly since the Rays are leaning into the notion that pitching will carry them back to the postseason.

Maybe that changes if we see a rash of pitching injuries around the league and rival GMs start lusting after Rays pitchers. That does not appear to be the case at this point.

— The 2019 Rays rotation: Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos and Yarbrough. This group actually made it through several rotation turns before Snell broke his toe prior to Game 19.

The problem with not making a trade is figuring out what to do with your six starters. The Rays have been pretty insistent that they do not want a six-man rotation. And none of the six deserves a long-man role in the bullpen.

One possibility?

Using two starters as a tandem. The Rays have done this previously. In 2021, the plan was for Hill and Archer to each throw four innings in the same game. It never really got off the ground because Archer went on the injured list after his second appearance. A month later, they eased McClanahan into the rotation with a couple of four-inning starts with Patino coming in behind him.

It’s not a long-term plan, but it doesn’t need to be. History suggests one of the starters will go down sometime in the next month.

— The 2018 Rays rotation: Archer, Snell, Nathan Eovaldi, Jake Faria and a bullpen day. Not long before opening day, Eovaldi was scheduled for arthroscopic elbow surgery.

There’s your history. And your options.

What do you do?

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