PITTSBURGH — They could name a roller coaster at Kennywood after what David Bednar has experienced over the past 10 months or so, the frustrations of a down year in 2024 juxtaposed with the excitement of soon becoming a new dad.

It's not all that dissimilar to the highs and lows experienced by Bednar's beloved Steelers, although he'd probably be OK if both smoothed out those rough edges and found some more consistency.

The bigger point: It's hard to understate how much Bednar matters when it comes to the Pirates' plight, stretching beyond 76 wins and producing a season in 2025 that will align with fans' expectations and not leave a sour taste like many felt after last year.

"I've never been more ready to go, dialed in and hungry to get back to who I know I am," Bednar said on Saturday during PiratesFest at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center.

Scan the Pirates roster and I'm not sure you'll find a player with a larger variance of outcomes, at least on the pitching side.

Yes, Paul Skenes is dominant. The Pirates should have a very good, young and exciting rotation. Their offense must surprise some people, but I do think they're capable of finishing somewhere between 15th to 20th in runs instead of 24th.

Will it be enough? Tough to say.

Turning runs into wins also follows the predictable path of quality starters to a reliable bullpen ... and for the Pirates, a closer who has been among the best in the game over the past few seasons before this one.

Consider that in 2022 and '23 combined, only three relievers had more wins above replacement (per FanGraphs) than Bednar (3.8): Devin Williams (4.0), Emmanuel Clase (4.1) and Felix Bautista (4.1).

But last year, for a few different reasons, Bednar scuffled. In 62 appearances, he had a 5.77 ERA compared to 2.00 the year before, his rate of strikeouts, walks and home runs for nine innings experiencing similar issues.

Why that happened has been posited in a few different places.

Injuries were definitely a factor for Bednar, who missed most of spring training and probably should've taken more time while returning from a right lat injury. He also dealt with a strained left oblique, another injury that can be especially difficult for a pitcher.

Then there was the suspicion of pitch-tipping, something I heard questioned a few places around the Pirates and an idea former MLB pitcher Trevor May outlined in striking detail via YouTube last December.

All of it has given Bednar plenty to consider as he prepares for what he hopes will be a bounce-back season in 2025.

"It's challenging," Bednar said of his down year in '24. "You're disappointed, but I've had a lot of time to reflect. ... Other guys have gone through similar stretches and returned right back to form, so I have a lot of belief in myself.

"I know who I am and what I can be. I'm just really looking forward to 2025, a fresh start and really getting back after it."

I believe in Bednar — and you should, too. Not just because he's from here or any of the sentimental stuff at play, but he's been one of MLB's best closers since debuting. He also wouldn't be the first pitcher to have a down year in his late 20s (Bednar is now 30) and bounce back.

Josh Hader (5.22 ERA in 2022) comes to mind. Old friend Aroldis Chapman was an All-Star three times in four years with the Yankees before posting career-worsts in ERA (4.46) and WHIP (1.431). Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen, two veterans Bednar learned a lot from in San Diego, have gone through similar stuff.

Injuries got Yates. Stammen has a career ERA of 3.66 but saw that number spike to 5.63 in 2020. It happens.

Catching up with Bednar on Saturday, it was noticeable that he's dropped some weight, probably 10 or 15 pounds, though he didn't seem to want to make a big deal out of it.

More than anything, it's about avoiding those nagging injuries.

"My body's in a good spot," Bednar said. "I've been doing everything I can to put myself in a good position to stay healthy throughout the year."

You can also examine data relative to Bednar's 2024 season, and the reasons for his struggles weren't necessarily tied to injuries or health.

In fact, the average velocity on his four-seamer actually rose — from 96.6 mph to 97.2 in 2024, though I'm not sure that makes a huge difference either way.

The underlying numbers on pitch shape told a similar story, along with how Bednar mixed his three offerings. From my vantage point, his biggest issues stemmed from missed location and predictability.

Bednar didn't have consistent enough fastball command, which explains why opponents' batting average jumped from .188 to .256, the slugging percentage went from .315 to .459, and the pitch carried a minus-6 run value (per Baseball Savant) compared to 12 in 2024.

Was it tipping? Was it easier to sit fastball because Bednar missed too often with his splitter and curve? Was it fatigue stemming from injuries?

There's probably some truth to all of those things. I also think it's OK to trust the type of person Bednar is, where he's from, how he was raised, how much he cares, how hard he works, how much he puts into fixing this.

I understand the frustration of watching him blow seven saves last season, the same as 2022 and '23 combined. It cost the Pirates some important games before things really fell apart. He'll be the first to tell you it's not OK and that he needs to pitch better. (He also did say those things.)

But as Bednar enters a phase of his life that changes all of us more than we can ever realize at the time, let's hear him out. Can he respond? Can he lead a bullpen that absolutely must improve upon a 4.49 ERA (fourth-worst in MLB in '24)?

I know a lot of people who sure as heck hope so.

"I think everybody in there had a sour taste from last year," Bednar said. "Obviously I think there's some really good young talent here. We're ready to take that next step forward."

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