Republican gains among Latino voters face 2026 test in California

WASHINGTON — From the far reaches of South Texas to the dense urban enclaves of northern New Jersey, Republicans made significant gains with working-class Latino voters last year.

The upcoming midterm elections will test the durability of that rightward shift — and whether it’s transferable to down-ballot Republicans running in a time of economic turbulence without Donald Trump at the top of the ticket.

In addition to Texas and New Jersey, Republicans have their sights on a handful of heavily Hispanic congressional districts in California. They range from a race in the San Joaquin Valley that is likely to be among the nation’s most competitive to an under-the-radar contest in a blue district in Southern California that could become a battleground as the election cycle unfolds.

“If (Republicans) can keep up the trend next year without Trump on the ballot, that could be the difference-maker in competitive races that we’re all used to talking about … and even start to pull solidly Democratic districts that we haven’t normally considered competitive … into the conversation,’’ Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections said.

But, Gonzales added, “continuing the positive movement among Hispanic voters won’t be easy for Republicans in a midterm election with Trump in the White House if voters of all races are concerned about the strength of the economy and direction of the country.”

Republicans have expressed confidence that Hispanic voters will keep trending right, driving a realignment that will help the party maintain its hold on the House in 2026 and set it on a path of future electoral success. The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting Democrats in districts with large Hispanic populations across the country, including California Reps. Adam Gray, Josh Harder and George Whitesides; Texas Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar; and New Jersey freshman Nellie Pou.

“For years, Democrats have taken working-class and Hispanic Californians for granted. Now Latino voters are gravitating toward the Republican Party because commonsense Republican leadership is delivering real results,’’ NRCC spokesman Christian Martinez said.

Drops in Latino support

Democrats agree that the fight for Hispanic voters could determine the balance of power in the chamber. But they reject Republican assertions that an embrace of Trump signifies a broader move toward the GOP, pointing out that House Democrats overperformed Kamala Harris in many Latino-heavy districts in 2024.

“The NRCC can try to spin Trump’s 2024 success among Latinos as a proof point for their own candidates, but it’s not based in reality,” Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “House Democrats were successful despite the top of the ticket shift to Trump because of our laser focus on economic issues like lowering costs.”

Several recent public opinion surveys suggest Latino support for Trump may already be waning. A Pew Research Center poll released last month found his disapproval rating among Latinos at 72%, with 27% approving.

A Reuters/Ipsos Poll, also from last month, found Trump’s job approval among Latinos had slipped to 34%, driven largely by concerns about the economy.

“This is a pocketbook voter,” said veteran Republican political consultant Mike Madrid, who has long tracked the Latino electorate in California and around the nation. “If the economy is doing well, Republicans will benefit. If not, they will be punished.”

Republicans hold a governing trifecta in Washington, which has allowed GOP members of Congress to aggressively push Trump’s agenda. But that also brings the risk of a political reckoning if voters sour on the president’s efforts to shrink government and overhaul the social safety net — or blame him for a faltering economy.

“If Donald Trump had just gone golfing and not gotten into the tariff thing, he’d be at a very record high number with Latino voters right now, I guarantee it,’’ Madrid said. “He’s given up all the gains he’s gotten.”

California races on the radar

Of the 18 Hispanic-majority districts in California, four are currently rated as competitive by Inside Elections.

One of them, the 25th District, an agriculture-rich swath of the state bordering both Mexico and Arizona, is no one’s idea of a battleground seat. Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz, a Mexican-born, Harvard-trained physician, has grown accustomed to winning reelection by comfortable margins since knocking off Republican Mary Bono Mack in 2012.

But, spurred by the 2024 election results, some Republicans see opportunity in the California desert. Harris carried the district, which includes Imperial County and the eastern part of Riverside County, by a scant 2.5 points, according to calculations by The Downballot, a steep drop from Joe Biden’s 15-point victory in 2020.

“This is a new swing seat that President Trump helped create,’’ said Republican consultant Clinton Soffer, who is working for Joe Males, a Marine veteran and Hemet City Council member running to unseat Ruiz.

Democrats scoff at the notion that Ruiz is vulnerable. He won a seventh term by nearly 13 points in 2024, even as Trump outperformed expectations. They also note that Ruiz is not on the NRCC’s target list for 2026.

One California race that’s on both parties’ radars is the looming battle in the 13th District. The Central Valley swing seat shifted 16 points from 2020 to 2024 toward Trump, who carried it by 5 points. Still, Democrat Adam Gray, a former California state assemblyman, edged out Republican incumbent John Duarte by less than 200 votes in the cycle’s closest House race.

Not surprisingly, Gray is one of the NRCC’s top targets. Republican Javier Lopez, the mayor of Ceres who entered the race last month, said Latinos are drifting away from the Democratic Party and aligning with the GOP on issues ranging from border security to parents’ rights.

“See, the Democrats have always pandered to Latinos in the Central Valley with false promises and hopes,’’ Lopez said. “That will no longer continue. A lot of Latinos are turning to the Republican Party because they have always represented their American values.”

Gray has tried to carve out a lane as a moderate, telling CNN’s Jake Tapper that he’s willing to “sit down at the table” and work with Trump and the Republicans on border security and immigration policy.

“The Latino community is incredibly important to our district and if Congress worked half as hard as the people of California’s 13th, the country would be in a much better place,’’ the Blue Dog Democrat said in a statement. “The story of the San Joaquin Valley is a story of immigrants new and old and I’m honored to work every day on their behalf.”

The district, where Latinos make up roughly two-thirds of the electorate, defies easy characterization, said Benjamin T. Duran, a retired educator and Gray supporter. “This whole valley is closer to the Midwest than the rest of California,’’ he said. “A lot of conservative folks live here, both people of color and white folks.”

The 2024 presidential results shouldn’t be read as a sign of a broader political realignment in the Central Valley, Duran said. “We had poor Kamala Harris that was shoved into this thing three months before. You can’t use this election as an indicator of where things are going.”

Other Hispanic-majority districts that could see competitive races next year include another pair of Central Valley seats: the 22nd District — a perennial battleground represented by Republican David Valadao — and the 21st District held by Democrat Jim Costa and where Trump cut his margins last year by double digits.

Madrid said that while there are signs of Latino voters moving “quickly, decisively from the Democratic Party,” that didn’t necessarily mean they were turning into Republicans.

“There’s very little evidence suggesting Latinos are becoming more Republican,” he said. “There’s a lot of evidence showing them becoming much more populist.”