Would Trump or Harris win in an election rematch today? What a new poll found

Brendan Rascius, The Charlotte Observer on May 15, 2025

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If the 2024 presidential election were held again today, President Donald Trump might not win the White House, according to new polling.

In a Strength in Numbers/Verasight survey, 40% of respondents said they would vote for former Vice President Kamala Harris “if the U.S. was holding a do-over election today.” Meanwhile, 36% said they would cast their ballot for Trump, and 1% said they were undecided.

And, when respondents who said they would not vote in a rematch were removed, Harris led Trump 47% to 42%.

The former vice president also held a sizable advantage over Trump — 36% to 22% — among respondents who said they did not vote in the 2024 election. In contrast, respondents who did vote in 2024 were split 43% to 43% over the two candidates.

The poll sampled 1,000 U.S. adults May 1-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

A similar poll — conducted by Emerson College in April — asked how respondents would cast their ballot “if they could go back in time to the 2024 election, knowing what they know now.” In this survey, Trump came out slightly ahead.

Ninety-three percent of Harris voters said they would leave their vote unchanged, while 94% of Trump voters said the same, giving him a 48% to 47% advantage.

Other findings

The latest survey also found that a majority of respondents, 56%, disapprove of the job Trump has done so far, while 40% approve.

The president is also underwater on nearly every issue. For example, 63% disapprove of his handling of prices and inflation, 55% disapprove of his job on the economy and 54% rate him negatively on foreign policy.

A majority, 52%, approve of him when it comes to just one issue: border security.

Further, 53% of respondents said the economy is worse today than it was at the same time last year, while just 25% believe it is better.

And most say Trump is to blame for this. Fifty-six percent of respondents said the president’s “policy decisions have made the economy worse,” while just 22% said they have improved the economy.

The poll also found that Democrats have reason to be hopeful when it comes to future elections.

Forty-seven percent of respondents said they’d be more likely to vote for a Democrat in the 2026 midterm elections, while 41% said they’d be more prone to voting for a Republican.

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