A Romanian ultranationalist aligned with Donald Trump will head to a presidential runoff against the centrist mayor of Bucharest later this month after securing victory in a repeat election on Sunday, the latest blow to the nation’s ruling establishment.

George Simion of the ultranationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians secured 40%, while independent Nicusor Dan won 20.7%, Romania’s election authority said early Monday with most votes counted. Former liberal party leader Crin Antonescu, who was backed by mainstream parties, was eliminated in the vote.

Even with a commanding win, polls have shown that a May 18 runoff is likely to be a closer contest. It will decide whether the country maintains the reliably transatlantic course it’s pursued for the three-and-a-half decades since the collapse of dictator Nicolae Ceausescu’s regime, or turns to anti-establishment forces that have challenged the EU’s liberal order.

The vote was the second attempt to choose a president after the shock victory of a far-right fringe candidate last year prompted accusations of Kremlin interference and the high court’s cancellation of the ballot. The unexpected first-round victory in November of Calin Georgescu, who had been banned from running in Sunday’s race, prompted Romania’s biggest political crisis since the fall of communism.

Simion attributed the turn against the establishment to lasting poverty that’s driven millions of Romanians out of the country in search of work. He said he also benefited from the current government’s lack of assertiveness in protecting Romania’s interests in the European Union and beyond.

“One of the reasons why the government and the establishment is not supported here in Romania is the fact they didn’t have a strong enough voice inside the EU,” Simion said in an interview in his office in Bucharest shortly before polls closed. “They did whatever the others wanted, the big powers wanted.”

But Simion may face stiffer competition from Dan, a mathematician and activist who took over Romania’s capital of some 2 million in 2020. His edging out of Antonescu was the second blow to the ruling parties, leaving Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s government in a more fragile position.

Georgescu’s win last year “was the first time that we have a critical mass saying clearly we want a change,” Dan said in an interview last month.

Allegiance to Trump

Looming over the contest was Trump, whose administration took a keen interest in Romanian politics amid protests over the annulled vote. An ultranationalist head of state, who would represent Romania at European Union and NATO summits, could add to far-right forces across the EU tearing at the seams of the bloc’s liberal institutions.

Speaking to reporters earlier Sunday, Simion said he was an adherent of Trump’s movement — and delivered a raft of accusations over alleged voting irregularities, including millions of dead people on voter rolls, and accused a number of broadcasters of spreading “lies.” He didn’t produce any evidence to back up his claims.

The country’s top court annulled last year’s vote and ordered a repeat over suspicions of Russian interference in Georgescu’s campaign. The court decision, which Simion called a “coup d’etat” has come under fire from far-right groups as well as Trump allies. U.S. Vice President JD Vance cited it as an as example of democratic backsliding and alleged discrimination against far-right politicians in a speech to the Munich Security Conference in February.

In a message published on the Facebook account of the U.S. Embassy in Bucharest this week, Vance was quoted urging Romania to ensure that “the voice of the people is heard as it’s the sacred foundation of democracy.”

Still, a senior U.S. official, Federal Election Commission Vice-Chairman James “Trey” Trainor, warned of outside meddling in Romania’s democracy. Part of a high-level delegation from Washington, Trainor said Saturday that it was “very clear” that last year’s contest was manipulated.

Simion has said his party, the AUR, counts Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a European ally. The far-right leader has vowed to end assistance to Ukraine, though — marking a contrast with Georgescu, who has praised Vladimir Putin — Simion has denounced the Russian president as a war criminal.

Romania is the EU country that shares the longest land border with Ukraine and has helped facilitate millions of grain exports from the war-battered nation through its Black Sea ports.

Romania’s president is not a figurehead akin to heads of state in other European countries. Elected to a five-year term, the president represents the country at EU and NATO meetings and is commander-in-chief of the military, though the prime minister leads the country’s government.

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