States are divided in their willingness to welcome a project from a Chinese automaker because the allure of such a billion-dollar investment and its promise of thousands of jobs also could raise serious national security concerns and fuel popular pushback.

Still, some industry analysts predict a China-based automaker — beyond Chinese-owned Volvo and Polestar — will be manufacturing in the United States in the coming years. As tariffs and regulations on Chinese vehicles and their technology grow amid fears they'll outcompete domestic producers, experts point to past decades when similar policies induced Japanese and South Korean competitors to build vehicles within U.S. borders, draining market share from the likes of General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co.

"It's very high in the next two or three to five years," Colin Langan, analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, said last month before the Society of Automotive Analysts about the likelihood of a Chinese automaker assembling in the United States. "If you're a governor of a state, as much as you might be anti-China, are you going to allow 5,000 people to be unemployed because you refuse to let the Chinese in?"

President Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to welcome them. Chinese automakers could look at building a new assembly plant, could seek to take over an old one or could team with an existing automaker that has underutilized plants.

Langan predicted it'll be one of the latter because that's how they're growing elsewhere. Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. is building vehicles in a plant formerly owned by Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. in Spain as well as in abandoned Volkswagen AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG sites in Russia. China's BYD Co. Ltd. is making vehicles in a former Ford plant in Brazil, though it's broken ground on an assembly plant in Hungary, too.

President Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to welcome them. Chinese automakers could look at building a new assembly plant, could seek to take over an old one or could team with an existing automaker that has underutilized plants.

Langan predicted it'll be one of the latter because that's how they're growing elsewhere. Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. is building vehicles in a plant formerly owned by Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. in Spain as well as in abandoned Volkswagen AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG sites in Russia. China's BYD Co. Ltd. is making vehicles in a former Ford plant in Brazil, though it's broken ground on an assembly plant in Hungary, too.

The Trump administration has indicated it could expand that ban despite the president saying on the campaign trail he'd welcome Chinese automakers manufacturing in the United States so long as they use American workers. Tariffs, he added, would ensure they don't import vehicles or their batteries from China or Mexico, where Chinese automakers like BYD have considered opening plants.

"Right now, we can't import Chinese batteries," Tu Le, managing director of management consulting firm Sino Auto Insights, recently said at Newlab's innovation hub in Detroit. "So my prediction, within the next four years, within the Trump administration, there's going to be a Chinese EV company that's building cars in the United States."

Constructing a plant in the United States, though, would require substantial investment in marketing and brand awareness before Americans even recognize names like BYD, Nio Inc. and SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd.

“That would be building a plant before they start a brand,” Fiorani said. Volvo's electric vehicle-affiliated “Polestar is still having a tough time getting name recognition. Outside of Geely, it’ll be tough to find a Chinese manufacturer who wants to take the risk to open a U.S. plant.”

Unfamiliar Chinese manufacturers, however, have garnered market share in Europe thanks to low-cost products and government EV incentives. BYD's Seagull EV in China starts at below $10,000, a price despite the costs of homologation and tariffs that has automotive executives concerned. Prior to imposing EV levies on China last year, the European Commission was forecasting a 15% share of the bloc's EV market to be Chinese brands by 2025; the Chinese share of Europe's EV business was 11% as of June 2024.

Even if the barriers present are insufficient, some U.S. states with automotive presences say they wouldn't be willing to support a project from a Chinese company. States from Michigan and Ohio to Georgia and the Carolinas typically dole out millions of dollars in taxpayer subsidies, tax breaks or other incentives to attract automotive plants and the thousands of jobs that come with them.

Michigan's take

When asked whether Michigan, the state that put America on wheels, would back a project from a Chinese automaker, the quasi-governmental Michigan Economic Development Corp. declined to comment on speculation.

"What I can say is the MEDC," spokesperson Otie McKinley said in an email, "remains laser focused on executing our Make it in Michigan economic development strategy and bringing investment and job creation to the state."

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's office referred to the Democratic leader's Road Ahead Address delivered in January at the Detroit Auto Show in which she recognized the threat to Michigan auto jobs from China, whose automakers have the capacity to produce about half of the world's annual new-vehicle consumption.

"European automakers are falling behind," she said. "More than 12 million European direct and indirect auto industry jobs are at risk. If we do not act, that could be our future. One where we allow companies subsidized by the Chinese government to sell at a loss and crush the core of our economy. That’s not going to happen. Not on our watch. Instead, let’s seize this moment. Let’s bring both parties in the Legislature together. And let’s support the auto ecosystem we need to dominate."

Michigan already has indicated at least some willingness to work with Chinese companies. In 2022, it lured battery maker Gotion Inc. to west Michigan near Big Rapids for a $2.4 billion parts plant that's expected to create 2,350 jobs.

It's an American subsidiary of Gotion High Tech Co. Ltd., which is based in China and whose articles of association require that the company "carry out party activities in accordance with the constitution of the Communist Party of China." The U.S. subsidiary has been incorporated in California since 2014, and German automaker Volkswagen AG, a purchaser of Gotion's batteries, holds about a quarter of Gotion's shares.

The company received about $175 million in direct incentives and is slated to see $636 million in tax abatements over 30 years. But it's garnered criticism from top Republicans in the state as well as from Trump while on the campaign trail.

"The Gotion plant would be very bad for the state and our country," Trump posted in August on social media. "It would put Michiganders under the thumb of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing. I am 100% opposed."

Michigan also is supporting Ford's battery plant in south-central Michigan's Marshall. The Dearborn automaker is licensing technology from Chinese producer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. to manufacture batteries, though CATL isn't involved in its operations. Still, even that connection has garnered scrutiny from GOP lawmakers and pushback from some residents.

Where other states stand

Other states, like Texas, are more definitive on whether they would support a project from a Chinese automaker.

"The Chinese Communist Party has made it clear that they can — and will — target and attack America’s critical infrastructure as part of their strategy to undermine the national security of the United States," said Andrew Mahaleris, spokesperson for Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, in a statement. "Texas will not allow CCP-affiliated entities to have a presence in our state."

Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd.'s Volvo opened its plant in Ridgeville, South Carolina, in 2018. Subsequently, the U.S. Commerce Department named China a foreign entity of concern. That means the Republican-controlled state wouldn't support a new project from a Chinese company, said Kelly Coakley, spokesperson for the state's Commerce Department.

"The state of South Carolina," she wrote in an email, "does not facilitate projects with prospective companies from countries that are currently designated by the U.S. government as foreign adversaries."

What that means is that South Carolina does not use discretionary economic development grants or tax incentives to attract companies from countries designated as foreign adversaries, including for infrastructure improvements, Coakley said.

South Carolina, however, "fully and unequivocally supports the growth and success of existing South Carolina companies, including Volvo Cars," Emily Eckert, spokesperson for the Commerce Department, added in an email.

Georgia also isn't recruiting any projects from China, adding there aren't any sites large enough to accommodate a Chinese automaker. A key reason: Georgia law prohibits investment by a foreign adversary near military installations, said Garrison Douglas, spokesperson for Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican.

New Mexico, on the other hand, said it'd welcome an automotive-scale project from a Chinese company and has industry-agnostic incentives that could support such an investment, said Michael Coleman, spokesperson for Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.

"In terms of economic development, we don’t pick winners and losers," Coleman wrote in an email. "New Mexico is already a global manufacturing hub, and our state would be happy to work with any country or region interested in creating jobs and economic opportunities."

The state would work with federal department approval processes to move forward with any project, said Bruce Krasnow, spokesperson for the state's Economic Development Department

Coleman added: "New Mexico is a pioneer for dual-purpose technologies and innovations that meet a national security mission. We are hyper-sensitive to national security concerns and implications, and any and all economic development initiatives will meet requirements necessary for maintaining our national security."

Tennessee's Department of Economic and Community Development doesn't recruit or incentivize Chinese companies to come to the Republican-dominated state, spokesperson Chris O'Brien said. Alabama also wouldn't facilitate such a project, said Gina Maiola, spokesperson for Republican Gov. Kay Ivey.

Nevada hasn't had conversations with any Chinese automakers and doesn't expect to, said Josh Meny, spokesperson for Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. Mississippi doesn't have any Chinese projects pending, but would evaluate a project like any other if one were to arise, said Cory Custer, deputy chief of staff for Republican Gov. Tate Reeves.

The Louisiana Economic Development agency doesn't respond to hypothetical scenarios, but evaluates projects based on state and local impact and how they align with the goal of positioning the Republican-controlled state as a leader in economic development and opportunity, spokesperson Kevin Litten said.

The JobsOhio economic development agency said it doesn't share discussions on its competitive strategy. The Kansas Commerce Department said the subject was too speculative. California Gov. Gavin Newsom's Office of Business and Economic Development and representatives for Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs and Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers declined to comment.

Multiple requests for comment on the willingness to facilitate a project from a Chinese automaker to economic development agencies and governors' offices in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri and North Carolina didn't receive responses.

Other ways into the U.S. market

A new plant, however, may not be the answer. A Chinese automaker, Langan said, could look at moving into a shuttered assembly plant or partner with an existing manufacturer that would benefit from learning how the Chinese produce vehicles.

Currently, few closed automotive plants remain after others have been razed or brought to life again. One plant still standing is Lordstown Assembly in northeast Ohio. GM sold it in 2019 to EV startup Lordstown Motors Corp., which went bankrupt in 2023. Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn Technology Group acquired the site in 2022 and had plans to manufacture Fisker Inc.'s Pear electric SUV there, but that EV startup declared bankruptcy last year.

The Detroit News left a request for comment on potential uses of the Lordstown plant to Foxconn, which is formally known as Hon Hai Technology Group.

Idled plants like GM's Orion Assembly in Orion Township and Stellantis NV's Belvidere Assembly Plant in Illinois are slated to see product in the coming years.

Otherwise, U.S. new vehicle purchases haven't returned to pre-pandemic levels, so use of capacity at some existing plants owned by GM, Ford, Stellantis and Nissan is low, according to AutoForecast Solutions.

Stellantis already has invested in Chinese EV startup Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co. Ltd., and the companies have a joint venture for the manufacturing and distribution of Leapmotor vehicles outside China. Stellantis is building Leapmotor models in Europe for that market, though the company has said there aren't plans to bring Leapmotor to North America.

Representatives for GM, Ford and Nissan said potential partnerships are too speculative to discuss.

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