Kevin Baxter: In three-nation coaching carousel, Canada has the best seat

LOS ANGELES — After winning the right to stage the 2026 World Cup, the U.S., Mexico and Canada had eight long years to put together teams good enough to make long runs in the tournament.

All while three teams have hired new coaches since May, when that marathon became a sprint, only Canada has momentum on its side heading into the final lap. That leaves Mexico and the U.S. in danger of blowing a once-in-a-generation opportunity to grow the sport's popularity and secure hundreds of millions in new sponsorship dollars.

Mexico is starting over — again — after hiring its fourth coach since bowing out of the last World Cup in the group stage for the first time in more than four decades. El Tri has won fewer than half its games since Qatar, was eliminated in the first round of this summer's Copa América and drew just 25,271 for last week's Rose Bowl match against New Zealand, its smallest crowd for a U.S. friendly in nearly three years.

While none of those trends are positive, Mexico is still doing better than the U.S.

The new manager the Americans targeted, Mauricio Pochettino, had his signing held up by Chelsea, his former club, forcing the U.S. to use interim coach Mikey Varas for its two September friendlies. If Pochettino coaches the U.S. in its October matches against Panama and Mexico, he will be the fifth manager the team has used since the last World Cup.

The U.S. also left the Copa América in the group stage, the only time the national team has been eliminated in the first round of a global or continental tournament it hosted, while last week's loss to Canada was its third in a row and fifth in nine games this year.

If the U.S. drops one of its final three games it will mark the first time since 2016 it has lost at least six games in one year.

That brings us to Canada, which is coming off its only World Cup appearance in 36 years. In its first tournament under American-born coach Jesse Marsch, Canada made it to the Copa América semifinals, losing only to eventual champion Argentina. And last week's win over a mistake-prone U.S. was its first victory on American soil since 1957.

For Canada the timing couldn't be better while for Mexico and the U.S., it couldn't be worse.

The 2026 World Cup, the first to be played in North America since 1994, will offer unprecedented exposure for each country's national team as well as for their domestic leagues. A deep run to the quarterfinals or beyond will bring new fans and additional revenue for those federations and their leagues.

Another embarrassing early exit, on the other hand, could have the opposite effect, chasing away both fans and sponsors.

Javier Aguirre, back for this third stint as Mexico's coach, says the 21 months left before the World Cup opener in Mexico City is sufficient to right the ship. "There is time," he said after last week's 3-0 win over New Zealand. "We have time to prepare."

Aguirre, who coached Mexico in the 2002 and 2010 World Cups, needs to make his team younger as he makes it better. So the team he called up this month is missing such stalwarts as goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, 39, and forwards Hirving "Chucky" Lozano, 29, and Raúl Jiménez, 33, and includes 10 players with 10 or fewer international caps.

"I need people that see that this is a great opportunity for a soccer player to play a World Cup at home," Aguirre said. "There is no better competition than a World Cup. And where better than at home? I need people for who that is clear. I'm working on that."

The road back could be more difficult for the U.S., which is why Pochettino, who has never coached above the club level, was reportedly offered one of the richest contracts in international soccer to take the job.

After winning 17 games in back-to-back seasons under Gregg Berhalter, the team's progress stalled, in part because of injuries to key players. Midfielder Tyler Adams, the U.S. captain, has played 90 minutes for the national team just once since Qatar while injuries have limited defender Sergiño Dest to just one international appearance this year.

Goalkeeper Matt Turner, brilliant in the last World Cup, has left Nottingham Forest, where he was a starter, for Crystal Palace, where he figures to be a backup, and less than half the players who were on the team in Qatar were called up during the current international window.

The move has exposed the shallow depth of the U.S. player pool while the loss to Canada exposed even more issues that need to be corrected.

"I love those guys, but the mentality to fight and to run, and to sacrifice. I can't do that for them," said Varas, who will reportedly leave the USMNT program after Tuesday's game to coach the MLS expansion team in San Diego. "That's on them."

So add fixing the mentality to Pochettino's expanding "to do" list, one which already includes building an identity and style of play. Not long ago, supporters were imagining a roster led by Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Gio Reyna, Adams and Dest taking the U.S. to the World Cup quarterfinals, if not further.

That now feels like wishful thinking.

But not for Canada. Marsch, a Wisconsin native who was once in line for the U.S. job, took the Canadian one in May, two months before Berhalter was fired. And Marsch says he has no regrets.

"I'd rather coach our team right now, 100 percent no questions asked," the former Chivas USA midfielder said. "You can see the mentality that has been developed. You can see the way this team plays. You can see how much they love playing for the national team."

It's a golden generation led by Mallorca's Cyle Larin, Lille's Jonathan David and Bayern Munich winger Alphonso Davies, who is just 23 and already a two-time CONCACAF player of the year. "They're willing to put their careers and lives and the way they play on the line to be the best they can be for each other and for the team," Marsch said. "That's all you can ask for as a coach."

Well, that and a chance to coach your team to World Cup wins at home. And right now Marsch and Canada are better positioned to do that than either of their North American co-hosts.