Ray Fittipaldo: Are the Steelers behind the NFL curve on 4th-down analytics?

Ray Fittipaldo, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on Jan 22, 2025

Published in Football

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PITTSBURGH — Early in the second quarter of the AFC wild-card game in Baltimore, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin had a decision to make. Facing fourth-and-inches from his own 29-yard line with his team trailing 7-0, Tomlin sent out punter Corliss Waitman rather than keep his offense on the field.

The Ravens scored on the ensuing drive for a 14-0 lead, and the Steelers never got back in the game. They trailed 21-0 at halftime and lost 28-14.

Perhaps Tomlin's conservative call was born out of his offense's ineptitude one week earlier in the Week 18 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, when he went for it on fourth-and-1 in his own territory late in the second quarter and gift-wrapped a field goal for the Bengals just before halftime.

It was a season-long problem for Arthur Smith's offense. Tomlin likes to refer to third and fourth downs as "weighty downs," and the Steelers were one of the worst teams in the league at converting fourth downs at 39%. Only the Cowboys were worse.

Take one look at the four teams remaining in the playoffs and it is night-and-day difference when it comes to fourth-down decision making and execution.

The four teams competing in the conference championship games this weekend have been elite all season on fourth downs. The Commanders set an NFL record this season by converting 87% of their fourth-down conversions. They were followed by the Bills (76%), Eagles (72%), Lions (69%) and Chiefs (69%).

This is winning in the margins and an example of how analytics can help coaches with their in-game coaching philosophies. The conversion percentage on fourth-and-1 is around 65%. On fourth-and-2 it's around 57% and on fourth-and-3, -4 and -5 it's above 40%.

For years in the NFL, from generation to generation, coaches were more conservative on fourth-and-short in the red zone, but that's no longer the case. In their two playoff games, the Commanders are 6 for 9 on fourth downs. They were 3 for 4 on fourth downs in their 45-31 victory over the top-seeded Lions on Saturday night. (For comparison's sake, the Steelers converted just seven times on fourth downs all season.)

The Commanders beat the Lions at their own game. Detroit coach Dan Campbell did not start the trend to go for it more on fourth down, but he's had the most success with it.

Dan Quinn's mantra all season on fourth downs has been "be bold not reckless" and it's led to great success in close games for Washington.

Against the Lions, the Commanders eschewed a 45-yard field goal try early in the game to go for it on the Lions 28-yard line. The attempt failed, but it didn't alter his decision making later in the game. The Commanders converted their next three attempts.

It's not by chance. Quinn's aggressiveness is calculated.

"DQ does a great job of letting me know prior to the drive, 'Hey, from this point on, you'll have it, you know, fourth-and-3-and-less or fourth-and-5-and-less,'" Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury told reporters in Washington last week. "So it definitely helps, the fact that he's so on top of it prior to the drive, how I call the play, the play sequencing, third down can really become a second down at times. That's been a great kind of marriage with us."

NFL teams are going for it on fourth down almost twice as much as they did in previous generations. When the Steelers won Super Bowl XLIII in 2008, they were 0 for 2 on fourth downs in their three playoff games. On the opening drive of the Super Bowl against the Cardinals, the Steelers had a fourth-and-1 at the Arizona 1-yard line, and Tomlin sent out Jeff Reed to kick an 18-yard field goal. In 2025, almost every NFL coach is keeping his offense on the field and going for a touchdown.

The Steelers have seen a slight uptick in fourth-down attempts in recent seasons, but nothing approaching what the most aggressive teams are doing. Ten years ago, during the 2014 season, the Steelers went for it on fourth down 10 times all season. They went for it on fourth down 18 times this past season. The Browns, who are coached by Ivy League graduate Kevin Stefanksi, led the league with 44 fourth-down attempts, which should ring a bell for Steelers fans.

When the Browns beat the Steelers in Cleveland in late November, they were 4 for 4 on fourth downs, including a crucial fourth-and-3 conversion on their game-winning touchdown drive in the final minutes of the game. Stefanski, by the way, has gone for it on fourth down more than any other coach the past three seasons — 114 times compared to 110 times for Campbell.

The Steelers, by contrast, were 1 for 3 on fourth downs in that game. It didn't get much better for the Steelers after that. During the five-game losing streak to end the season, the Steelers were 0 for 5 on fourth downs while their opponents were 2 for 3.

Opposing teams converted with ease on fourth downs against the Steelers all season. Opposing offenses were 15 for 21. Talk about not being able to get off the field.

On the weightiest of weighty downs, the Steelers have a lot of work to do on offense and defense to catch up to the rest of the league.

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