Tom Krasovic: Expect strong attendance figures to again push Padres toward postseason

Tom Krasovic, The San Diego Union-Tribune on Mar 6, 2025

Published in Baseball

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SAN DIEGO — The Padres seem headed to another competitive season in a 15-team league that serves up six playoff berths, with two or three teams that raise a figurative white flag on Opening Day and a few others that lack the pitching to really go for it.

A constant to this unprecedented Padres era of consistent competitive relevance is the ballpark experience — the franchise’s underlying MVP for several years running.

Attracted by factors such as Petco Park, competitive and interesting Padres teams (and their opponents), baseball itself, the desire for social connection to something larger and San Diego’s climate/coastal scenery, many folks are willing to pay for tickets, food, drink, parking and merchandise.

Thirty teams make up Major League Baseball. Here’s where the Padres finished in home attendance from 2021-2024: Third, second, fifth and third.

The magnetism of 81 Padres home games translates into robust ballpark revenues, which, in turn, improves the franchise’s ability to carry a higher player payroll.

This year lines up the same.

For the fifth year in a row, Padres management can count on home attendance landing in MLB’s top 10 and likely the top 5. Related: the team’s payroll stands 10th, improving the prospect of paying customers seeing the Padres earn a fourth wild-card berth in six years.

(Qualitatively, the Padres’ ballpark experience will again land near MLB’s peak. Here’s why: there’s a palpable hunger to these crowds. Padres fans want that first World Series trophy so bad, you can feel it. Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who won two trophies with the Red Sox, has made this same point.)

There’s a second topic to discuss here today, also relating to the Padres’ upcoming bid for another playoff berth.

No other National League owner is behaving as Peter Seidler did relative to his franchise’s market size. No one comes close. As the 2025 season nears, several NL owners appear to be either further turtling or hedging their bets.

This reality has improved San Diego’s playoff odds.

Seidler raised the payroll to the top 10 over the final four years of his tenure as Padres chairman, a stunning contrast to San Diego’s Nielsen-media market ranking of 30th in the United States and 26th in MLB.

Here are the specifics: the Padres’ payroll ended up sixth, seventh, fifth and third from 2020-23. Last year’s payroll fell to 15th, still well above the franchise’s media market size slot, and now sits 10th.

Padres attendance victories notwithstanding, it’s unsurprising that Seidler’s “go big or go home” approach didn’t inspire copycats among other owners in the NL’s small-and-mids.

The franchise ran afoul of MLB’s debt rule, and, in one year, got walloped with a luxury tax of nearly $40 million. Owners know their franchise valuation will go up, even if their teams stink.

If comparably market-sized team owners are impressed by the Padres becoming annual attendance giants and regular playoff participants, it’s not evident in how they’re spending.

This year, for sure, no other small- or mid-market NL team is spending above its media market size to nearly the Seidler levels.

Among those Padres rivals, owner Ken Kendrick’s Diamondbacks are the most aggressive. They’re 12th in current payroll and 14th in MLB teams ranked by market size, which is 11th in the country. That’s a pretty heavy bet, one that comes two years after Arizona reached the World Series on a much smaller payroll.

Below the Diamondbacks in media market size are six other NL franchises aside from the Padres: the Rockies, Marlins, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds and Brewers.

In comparison to those six teams, the Padres’ payroll is much bigger.

Beginning with the Cardinals and ending with the Marlins, those six teams are spending between $59 million and $137 million less than the Padres.

Seidler’s approach, it would appear, was unique to the San Diego market.

Now, there are challenges elsewhere. Several of the NL’s big-market clubs have jacked up their payrolls once again.

The Dodgers, Mets and Phillies stand first, second and third in MLB payroll at $389 million, $331 million and $281 million. San Diego’s is $207 million.

The Braves stand eighth in payroll, but will welcome back four standouts who were sidelined by serious injury.

Those four big-market teams form oddmakers’ top four of NL clubs to win the next World Series.

Next come the Padres.

Given that the NL Central champion will claim one of the league’s six playoff berths, the Padres’ most significant competitors for a wild-card berth appear to begin with the Diamondbacks, followed by either the Cubs or the dollar-stretching-wizard Brewers of the NL Central and the Giants.

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