WASHINGTON — From the balance of power on Capitol Hill to the early jockeying in the 2026 midterm elections, there’s no shortage of political news and nuances. So let’s run down a few hot topics.

Republicans shouldn’t take their House majority for granted

Republicans are trying to game out their House vacancies by delaying the confirmation of New York Rep. Elise Stefanik as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in order to preserve their narrow edge. But the recent death of Arizona Democrat Raul Grijalva just eight days after Texas Democrat Sylvester Turner died is a sad reminder about the fragility of life and the fragility of the GOP majority.

Crudely, Grijalva’s and Turner’s deaths take two votes away from Democrats until those seats are filled in special elections. But Republicans aren’t immortal (even though almost twice as many Democratic members of Congress as Republicans have died in office over the past two decades). Overall, there’s been an average of nearly two deaths of a member of Congress each year and more than three deaths each election cycle going back to 2001-2002. So it wouldn’t be a surprise for another incumbent to pass away before the end of next year.

After all, Turner’s death was unexpected. He attended President Donald Trump’s joint address to Congress the night before he died. Back in 2022, 58-year-old Republican Rep. Jackie Walorski died in a traffic collision in Indiana.

Republicans came out of the 2024 elections with a 220 to 215 majority. That went down to 218-215 after the departures of Florida Republicans Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz. And now it’s 218-213 with those Democratic vacancies in Texas and Arizona. The GOP majority should extend back to 220-213 a few days after the April 1 special elections to succeed Gaetz and Waltz in their deep-red seats.

Grijalva’s seat won’t be filled until the fall, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott might try to delay a special election to succeed Turner. But Republicans can’t take Stefanik’s not-yet-vacant seat for granted. Democrats might consider trying to keep the seat open as long as possible to withhold a vote from Speaker Mike Johnson. But if Democrats think they’ve got a legitimate shot at pulling off an upset, they’re probably better off with a short election for which their nominee would have a significant head start.

Republicans have found creative ways to lose special elections in New York over the past 20 years. If they do it again, that would potentially drop them to a 219-216 House majority later in the year, after new Democrats are eventually elected to succeed Grijalva and Turner.

At a minimum, Republicans are right to be aggressive now because it might be hard to hold the majority in the 2026 midterm elections.

How damaged is the Democratic brand?

Adding insult to the injury of losing to Donald Trump in 2024 and losing both chambers of Congress, Democrats are as unpopular as ever (at least over the past 30 years). And some people are ready to declare the party’s demise.

The Democratic Party had a 29% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating, according to a March 6-9 SSRS survey for CNN. That’s Democrats’ lowest favorable rating since CNN started asking the question in 1992.

The party out of the White House is usually without a clear leader, particularly in the immediate aftermath of a presidential election. (Republicans in 2021 are a notable exception.) But the public infighting among Democrats appears to be growing after the passage of the GOP-led government funding measure.

It looks like Democrats are in disarray.

It’s no surprise that Sen. Bernie Sanders warned about the need for a “major transformation” of the party. The Vermont independent has been saying that for years. “It can no longer be a top-down, billionaire-funded, consultant-driven party,” Sanders wrote Tuesday on social media. “It must be a multi-generational, multi-racial working class party.”

But the growing criticism from other progressives has sparked conversations about the potential for Democratic equivalent of the tea party to emerge within their ranks this cycle. Such a dynamic is generally viewed as a negative. But would it be?

The tea party movement energized the GOP base and led to a Republican takeover of the House in 2010 and more gains in 2014, arguably setting the stage for Trump in 2016. It was certainly uncomfortable for Republican leadership and establishment members, and flawed nominees in key races kept the GOP from winning a majority in the Senate for a couple of cycles. But the tea party didn’t prevent Republicans from gaining back power.

That’s why, in spite of the current polling and situation, it’s premature to declare the end of the Democratic Party. Republicans have been near the current Democratic level of unpopularity four times in the past 30 years, according to CNN polling, including December 1998 (31% approval), October 2013 (30%), September 2017 (29%) and 32% approval in the aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Each time, Republicans eventually bounced back.

If Democrats succeed in 2026, it likely won’t be because they won a popularity contest. It would be because Republicans lost or, more specifically, voters lost faith in GOP control of government.

That’s not to say Democrats shouldn’t contemplate their party’s image and develop a coherent strategy, but their current standing isn’t prohibitive to winning future elections, particularly if a majority of voters believe Republicans have gone too far.

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