As Trump ups trade war, Canada tariffs could hit consumers in unexpected ways

WASHINGTON — One Democratic senator offered an unexpected example of how he says President Donald Trump’s tariffs would hurt farmers and small businesses in his home state and across the country: Canadian-made aluminum pie pans.

Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, a former governor, said last week that he had spoken to farmers and bakery owners in the commonwealth who have not minced words in describing how they feel about Trump’s tariffs program, which could soon include the imposition of fees on imported steel and aluminum goods.

“Already, my farmers got hit so hard by tariffs in (the first Trump administration), and in an unlikely way. I mean, I had this bakery that sold mom’s apple pies. They have three retail locations. They told me, ‘We hate the tariffs.’ I said, ‘Why do you guys care about the tariffs?’” Kaine recalled.

The bakery owners’ answer: “‘The pie tins. … Every pie tin comes from Canada.’”

Citing Virginia’s diverse economy as an example, Kaine said the impact of the tariffs would be felt by the “biggest employer, shipyards, to a Volvo auto plant to the tiny farms and bakeries. … This thing really matters.”

The United States has been a major market for Canadian aluminum and steel for some time. In 2023, the U.S. was the top export destination for Canadian aluminum products, accounting for 90.3 percent of the total value of such exports, according to Natural Resources Canada.

But in an escalation of the trade war between the longtime economic allies, Trump wrote on social media Tuesday that he would order Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to increase from 25% to 50% a tariff on Canadian-made aluminum and steel products starting Wednesday. He said the move was in response to a retaliatory action by the Canadian province of Ontario to slap a fee on electricity it supplies to several American states.

After Trump’s announcement, Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s office said the provincial leader would be meeting with Lutnick in Washington on Thursday and that Ontario had “agreed to suspend its 25% surcharge on exports of electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota.”

U.S. and global stock markets have in recent days taken a sour view of the tariffs pushed by Trump, who declined to rule out an economic recession during a Fox News interview that aired Sunday. The import fees even prompted one report warning of higher auto insurance costs, linked to the higher price of Canadian- and Mexican-made vehicle parts.

American markets — including the widely followed S&P 500, Dow Jones index and NASDAQ — were all down sharply by the end of Monday trading. At press time, all were in the red during ongoing Tuesday trading. Appearing with Elon Musk at the White House on Tuesday, Trump told reporters that the “markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down, but, you know what, we have to rebuild our country.”

The markets’ tumble prompted warnings from congressional Democrats, urging Trump to pump the brakes.

“Donald Trump knows his tariffs could wreck the economy, but he’s doing it anyway,” Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., said Tuesday. “All so he can use the income from tariffs to pay for tax cuts for billionaires.”

Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz, a member of the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, wrote Monday on social media: “Markets don’t like monarchs who lack impulse control.”

Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a former Democratic National Committee chair, wrote on social media that the U.S. was “headed into a recession” and that “Trump’s chaos just makes the high prices and job fears worse.”

In his interview with Fox News that aired Sunday, Trump was asked by anchor Maria Bartiromo whether he expected a recession this year.

“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us,” the president said.

Asked later Sunday on Air Force One about his unwillingness to rule out a recession, Trump told reporters, “I tell you what, of course, you hesitate. Who knows?”

Meanwhile, Lutnick said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that there would be “no recession in America.”

“We’re going to bring manufacturing back, that’s where we’re going,” he said. “Will there be distortions? Of course. Foreign goods may get a little more expensive, but American goods are going to get cheaper.”

‘Pretty pumped’

But without competition from foreign-made goods, it was not clear what would keep the prices of American-produced items affordable. What was more clear was Trump’s intention to overhaul the U.S. economy, which many economists have said he inherited in fundamentally strong shape from former President Joe Biden, to make it more closed-off and self-sufficient.

“What I have to do is build a strong country. You can’t really watch the stock market. If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective. … We go by quarters,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. “And you can’t go by that. You have to do what’s right.

“What we’re doing is, we’re building a tremendous foundation for the future, tremendous foundation. Everything’s been taken away,” he added, referring to his vow to bring manufacturing facilities and jobs back from other countries.

White House officials this week have largely brushed off reports of the stock markets’ sharp downturn.

One official said in an email that he wanted to “emphasize that we’re seeing a strong divergence between animal spirits of the stock market and what we’re actually seeing unfold from businesses and business leaders.”

The Trump official contended that “the latter is obviously more meaningful than the former on what’s in store for the economy in the medium to long term.”

As the markets have dipped, many Republican lawmakers have stood by Trump — who remains wildly popular with the party base.

“Donald Trump, while he gave that honest answer, remember what he said: To me, that key word was ‘transition.’ … As awful as the last two years were and the last four years were, these are really decades of problems that have stacked up,” North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer, whose state backed Trump by 37 points last fall, told Fox Business on Monday.

“One president has come along and said, ‘We’ve got to right this ship. We cannot continue to do what generations of presidents and Congresses have done. And it’s going to take some dramatic action, and it’s what the American people signed up for,” Cramer contended. “That’s why they voted for him. And secondly, he’s doing exactly what he said he would do, and they’re still for him. The polling even today still supports Donald Trump. And maybe on Wall Street they’re a little uptight for now. But on Main Street, they’re pretty pumped.”

Yet, a March 8-10 Emerson College survey conducted around Trump’s 50th day back in office found his approval rating had slipped to 47% with disapproval of the president rising to 45%. The president began his term with a net approval rating of 49% to 41%, according to Emerson polling from late January.

“Despite not yet delivering on the economy in voters’ minds, Trump’s support remains strong. However, the true challenge will be how voters perceive their financial future. While little has shifted since the election, the initial ‘honeymoon phase’ seems to be coming to an end,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

“Voters are most supportive of Trump’s immigration policy,” Kimball added, “But they disapprove of his handling of the economy, believe tariffs will hurt economic growth, and are skeptical of his cryptocurrency policy.”

Trump’s top spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, defended her boss on Tuesday, saying his vision is to build a “manufacturing superpower” with “thriving industries again.”

“President Trump will not repeat the trend of past American presidents who broke their promises to the American public,” she said during a White House press briefing, “and smiled while they stuck a knife in the back of American workers and shipped their jobs overseas.

“We are in a period of transition from the mess that was created under Joe Biden and the previous administration,” she added, “into a Golden Age of American manufacturing under a businessman and a dealmaker-in-chief in President Donald J. Trump, who will be implementing, is implementing the formula that we know works.”

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(David Jordan contributed to this report.)

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