House members running for governor could complicate fight for majority

ANALYSIS – If Republicans or Democrats are tired of their commute or of the politics of Capitol Hill, they have many opportunities this election cycle to return home and run for governor. But the open seats they’d leave behind could have an impact on which party controls Congress after the 2026 midterm elections.

The path from Washington back home is well traveled. Eleven current governors have previous experience in elective office on Capitol Hill: Democrats Jared Polis (Colorado), Tim Walz (Minnesota), Michelle Lujan Grisham (New Mexico) and Kathy Hochul (New York) and Republicans Ron DeSantis (Florida), Mike Braun (Indiana), Jeff Landry (Louisiana), Greg Gianforte (Montana), Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire), Kelly Armstrong (North Dakota) and Mike DeWine (Ohio).

While GOP Sen. Marsha Blackburn looks like a lock to run for governor in Tennessee and Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville might run in Alabama, those bids wouldn’t be as consequential as the decisions of a handful of House lawmakers.

At this early stage, more than a dozen members are running, exploring or seriously considering runs for governor.

Holding a majority of governorships doesn’t come with an extra prize, but Republicans have a 27 to 23 advantage nationwide. The current cycle is huge for gubernatorial races, with 38 states electing governors over the next two years, including New Jersey and Virginia this year. Those 38 states are divided evenly between the two parties at 19 apiece, although Democrats currently hold more governorships that are initially rated as a Battleground by Inside Elections – eight versus Republicans’ three.

There are 15 open seats, with the potential for more, as some two-term governors contemplate their futures, giving members of Congress ample opportunities to run without challenging an incumbent. But unlike New Jersey Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer, who have a free shot to run for governor because the race is this year, some members have to decide whether to forgo reelection to a safe seat for an uncertain statewide bid.

A handful of members, however, would be leaving behind competitive seats, and in a narrowly divided House, that could make it more difficult for their party to win the majority in 2026.

Majority makers

One of the biggest early questions of the cycle is, what will Maine Rep. Jared Golden do? Running statewide would theoretically be easier for the Democratic congressman than winning reelection in a rural district, where Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris.

Whether Golden runs for governor or Senate, either way Democrats would be hard-pressed to hold Maine’s 2nd District without him. And it’s hard to see the party gaining the three seats needed for the majority if they lose too many of their own. In Ohio, new GOP-drawn district lines could push Democratic Reps. Emilia Sykes of Akron or Greg Landsman of Cincinnati to run for governor, leaving behind potentially competitive seats. It could also be difficult for Democrats to hold Minnesota’s 2nd District south of the Twin Cities if Walz doesn’t run and Rep. Angie Craig tries to succeed him.

Republicans could have some gubernatorial-related headaches as well.

New York Rep. Mike Lawler is sounding more and more like a challenger to Hochul, a former upstate congresswoman. But Republicans would struggle to hold Lawler’s 17th District seat in the Hudson Valley without him, particularly if the midterm political environment turns against the party in power.

Most Republicans expect Rep. John James to run for governor in Michigan. He would leave behind a competitive district outside Detroit. With such a slim majority, House Republicans also can’t afford to lose too many of their own seats or have members missing votes to campaign back home.

Keep it in the family

Other gubernatorial hopefuls in the House would be leaving behind open seats that are considered solidly Republican or solidly Democratic and would likely host competitive primaries rather than see competitive general elections.

Former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Biggs is running for governor in Arizona but Republicans shouldn’t have a problem holding his 5th District seat, which Trump carried with 59% of the vote last year, according to numbers compiled by election analyst Drew Sawicki. Trump also received 60% in Wisconsin’s 7th District, where GOP incumbent Tom Tiffany is considering a gubernatorial run.

Both seats almost look competitive compared with other districts where Republican members are considering runs for governor. Florida Rep. Byron Donalds would leave behind his coastal 19th District seat, which Trump carried with 64%.

Trump won Idaho’s 1st District, represented by potential gubernatorial candidate Russ Fulcher, with 71%, which is similar to the percentage he won in Wyoming, where at-large Rep. Harriet M. Hageman might run for governor. Rep. Dusty Johnson could make a bid in South Dakota, where Trump topped Harris with 63%.

In Pennsylvania, Republican Rep. Dan Meuser is considering a challenge to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro. Trump won Meuser’s 9th District with 69%, so there isn’t a risk of a Democratic flip there. And Trump received 67% and 78% in Tennessee’s 6th and 1st districts, where the respective Reps. John W. Rose and Diana Harshbarger are considering gubernatorial runs.

Trump won Minnesota’s 8th District and South Carolina’s 1st with “just” 56%, but the political environment would have to deteriorate significantly for those seats to come within reach for Democrats if Reps. Pete Stauber or Nancy Mace ultimately run for governor.

On the Democratic side, Colorado Rep. Joe Neguse is regarded as a serious potential candidate for governor. Harris received 68% in his 2nd District, so Democrats should have no trouble holding an open seat. It’s a similar story in Georgia’s 6th, where Harris received 75% and Rep. Lucy McBath might try to make a statewide jump.

Sounds familiar

There’s also a growing list of candidates not currently serving in Congress but with connections to Capitol Hill who could run for governor.

Democrat Mary Peltola was defeated for reelection in Alaska in 2024 but could make a political comeback by either seeking her former at-large seat, challenging GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan or running for governor. She’d be a formidable opponent in any race she chooses. The Alaska race could also include Democratic former state Sen. Tom Begich, who is the son of the late Democratic Rep. Nick Begich and uncle of current Republican Rep. Nick Begich.

Former Interior Secretary and former Rep. Deb Haaland just announced a run for governor of New Mexico, where Democratic incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham, also a former congresswoman, is term-limited. Former California Rep. Katie Porter lost the 2024 Senate primary won by fellow Democrat Adam B. Schiff, now the state’s junior senator. But Porter could run for governor next year if former Sen. Harris doesn’t do so. Another Democratic former senator, Colorado’s Ken Salazar, could run for his state’s open governorship. Salazar has also served as Interior secretary and U.S. ambassador to Mexico.

There are some other familiar names to folks on Capitol Hill who may run for governor. In New York, Rep. Ritchie Torres and former Rep. Antonio Delgado, who also happens to be lieutenant governor, may challenge Hochul in New York’s Democratic primary.

And Maine could see more political offspring in the gubernatorial mix, with former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, the daughter of 1st District Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree, and Angus King III, son of independent Sen. Angus King, as potential candidates.

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