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These Philadelphia voters went for Donald Trump in bigger numbers than ever before

Chris A. Williams, The Philadelphia Inquirer on

Published in Political News

PHILADELPHIA — President-elect Donald Trump pushed Philadelphia to the right this year by increasing his vote totals across a range of demographic groups and improving his performance with working-class voters, a shift that's been underway since his first run for president in 2016.

According to an Inquirer analysis of precinct-level data, Trump increased his standing in the city's white, working-class neighborhoods, winning more than 30% of the vote in precincts where white voters make up the majority of the electorate. He also improved in majority Black and Latino precincts, and with middle and working-class voters.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, still won Philadelphia handily, garnering 78% of the vote. That's to be expected in a deep-blue city where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 6-1.

But the inroads Trump made in Philadelphia — similar to growth he saw in urban areas across the country — helped him on his path to win Pennsylvania and the White House. His gains, coupled with slightly lower turnout in the city compared to 2020, meant Harris netted tens of thousands fewer votes in the city compared to what President Joe Biden won here four years ago.

While about 2% of the vote in Philadelphia remained to be counted as of Tuesday, the election returns show a clear rightward shift in the city — as there was most everywhere else Tuesday. Here's a breakdown of the vote shift.

White voters make up Trump's base, but he grew most with Latinos

Ballots that voters cast are private, so it is not possible to discern exactly how each candidate performed with specific types of voters. But we can ascertain how types of voters lean by examining how candidates performed in neighborhoods where a certain group makes up a majority of residents.

Trump performed best in the city's majority-white neighborhoods, winning nearly 30% of the vote in precincts where more than half of the residents are white, according to Census data. He garnered more than 90,000 votes in majority-white areas, which is nearly two-thirds of his vote total in the city — despite those areas making up only a third of all precincts.

While the bulk of Trump's support came from white voters, he showed the biggest improvement with Latino residents, reflecting a national trend of those voters moving right. Trump won 22% of the vote in majority-Latino precincts, compared to just 6% in the same areas in 2016. That's a swing of 16 percentage points.

Trump also improved in the city's majority-Black precincts, but his support in those areas was still far below the city average, despite significant handwringing in the Democratic Party about Harris potentially losing support among Black men. Trump won barely 6% of the vote in majority-Black areas, an increase of 4 percentage points compared to how he performed in those areas in 2016.

The city only has a few majority-Asian precincts, so not enough data was available to discern how Asian residents voted.

Trump improved in areas where education levels are lower

 

Working-class voters in the city have steadily moved toward Trump since his first run for president in 2016. In both the 2020 and 2024 elections, he made gains in neighborhoods where education levels are lowest and poverty rates are highest.

For example, in precincts where fewer than 40% of residents have a college degree, Trump improved by 10 percentage points compared to 2020.

Trump had comparatively worse results in highly educated areas. He gained just 4 percentage points in neighborhoods where more than 40% of the population has a college degree.

One bright spot for Democrats was Northwest Philadelphia, where the Democratic presidential nominees gained votes in most precincts for the second straight election. The party also made significant gains this year in parts of Center City and University City compared to 2020, but that's likely because many Philadelphia college students weren't on campus four years ago due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Together, those neighborhoods make up some of the most highly-educated portions of the city.

Trump increased his standing in lower-income areas

Trump generally received a larger share of the vote in districts with higher incomes, aside from the highest income bracket, where his popularity dipped slightly.

His support was highest in precincts with a median income of between $75,000 and $100,000 a year. He won 30% of votes in those areas compared to 26.5% in 2016. The Republican's support in precincts with a median household income of more than $100,000 ticked up only slightly over the past three elections, rising from 20.3% in 2016 to 21.2% in 2024.

However, his improvement with Philadelphia voters has been steepest in areas where incomes are lower. Across the city, Trump performed better in precincts where the poverty rate is higher. In precincts where the poverty rate is over 35%, Trump gained 3.3 percentage points compared to 2020. Conversely, Trump saw less improvement in areas where fewer people live in poverty. In precincts where the poverty rate is below 10%, Trump only gained 0.4% over his 2020 total.

His support in precincts where the median annual income is under $50,000 more than doubled, jumping from 4.9% in 2016 to 11.6% this year.

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Staff writers Lizzie Mulvey and Saara Ghani contributed reporting.


©2024 The Philadelphia Inquirer, LLC. Visit at inquirer.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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