Last weekend, South Korea’s Congress passed an impeachment bill for President Yoon Suk Yeol.

While the constitutional court of Korea is expected to deliver a final verdict within 180 days, the odds are not in the president’s favor due to his imposition of martial law and adverse public opinion. Following the court’s ruling, South Koreans will have 60 days to elect their next president.

American interests must assess whether the incoming president will continue the policies of Yoon, who was a staunch supporter of U.S. foreign initiatives in East Asia. This includes forming a security alliance among South Korea, Japan and the U.S. to counter threats from North Korea, China and Russia.

Gallup Korea’s opinion poll on Dec. 6 indicates that Korean voters will likely choose from four candidates: Han Dong-hoon and Oh Se-hoon from the conservative ruling party and Lee Jae-myung and Kim Dong-yeon from the progressive opposition party.

Since Yoon holds conservative views, candidates such as Han or Oh may be inclined to continue aligning with U.S. leadership within the triad alliance. Conversely, Lee or Kim might be reluctant to maintain this alignment due to anti-Japanese sentiments.

Among the four candidates, only Lee or Kim realistically stands a chance of winning, as the political fallout from Yoon’s administration has dramatically diminished the prospects for the two conservative candidates.

Lee, the leader of the largest opposition party, is currently the front-runner. He is known for his willingness to negotiate and compromise to achieve effective policy outcomes, even though that entails risks. Lee once stated, “Even if I might have to experience a political loss, I push forward on the right things to bring about results.”

Lee has played a significant role in the impeachment process against Yoon.

President-elect Donald Trump should be concerned about a potential Lee presidency, especially if Lee attempts to engage in secret dialogues with North Korea to revive the unification movement without consulting the White House. Conservative Koreans have criticized Lee’s amiable stance toward Pyongyang.

To maximize Korea’s national interests, Lee would likely prioritize economic cooperation with China while maintaining a security alliance with the U.S., which is central to the progressive party’s foreign policy. As of November, China is South Korea’s largest trading partner. Lee’s approach could undermine the America First policy in several areas, as he may opt not to support U.S. efforts to counterbalance China’s economic rise.

However, Lee’s aspirations for the presidency may be jeopardized if he is convicted of violating the Public Offices Election Act, which would bar him from running for office. The ruling party is trying to expedite the upcoming trials to ensure that Lee cannot enter the race.

If Lee cannot run for president due to a criminal conviction, the opposition party likely would replace him with Kim, the current governor of Gyeonggi province, an office Lee previously held.

Kim is a self-made bureaucrat and politician. Although he does not have a prestigious background, his extensive experience and knowledge in economic policymaking and development set him apart from other presidential candidates. Given the challenges facing the national economy, many Koreans may view him as the ideal candidate to revitalize economic growth.

Trump would not need to raise concerns with Kim, as Kim has maintained a neutral stance toward North Korea. However, he would be displeased if Kim initiates economic rapprochement with China.

Another strength of Kim is that he was born in Chungcheong province, a region often considered a political swing area. Many Koreans support presidential candidates from their hometowns, regardless of their qualifications.

One of Kim’s weaknesses is that he is relatively new to the political stage, having primarily built his career as a civil servant and university chancellor. His party must actively promote him to the public as soon as possible.

Han from the conservative party is expected to run against two progressive candidates. He has followed in Yoon’s footsteps, having a lengthy legal career before being appointed as the leader of the ruling party in December 2023. Yoon regarded Han as his junior partner, influencing his decision to appoint him.

However, the relationship between Han and Yoon has deteriorated since Han began to distance himself from Yoon’s policy positions and criticize Yoon’s scandal-ridden wife. Han’s actions were driven by his ambition to become the next president.

On Dec. 3, during martial law, Yoon ordered his soldiers to arrest and detain Han, the only targeted member of the ruling party. Han escaped arrest with assistance from an opposition party member.

Despite Han’s acclaimed legal expertise, he remains unpopular among his conservative colleagues and conservative members of the Korean community due to his opposition to Yoon. If Han is elected president, he would likely adopt a friendly approach toward the White House, similar to Yoon.

Oh is an alternative candidate to Han. He is a lawyer and politician who served as a member of the National Assembly from 2000 to 2004. Additionally, he has been the mayor of Seoul four times.

Although Oh has an impressive record, his popularity among Koreans is only 3%, according to a recent Gallup Korea survey.

However, Oh likely would consider Trump’s political requests, as his policies consistently align with the conservative party’s foreign policy platform.

Overall, Trump would prefer to work with a conservative South Korean president as a political partner. However, widespread public discontent toward Yoon and the conservative party — stemming from the political and economic fallout following the imposition of martial law and subsequent impeachment — suggests that a progressive president is more likely to be elected.

A conservative South Korean president would likely be more cooperative and friendly toward Trump, while a progressive president may be less willing to collaborate, as they tend to prioritize the sovereignty of their nation and the interests of their people.

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Seung-Whan Choi teaches Korean politics and international relations at the University of Illinois Chicago. A retired Army officer, he is the author of four books and dozens of journal articles.

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