Trump Won a Sweep, Hardly a Landslide
Yes, Donald Trump took all seven battleground states and the electoral votes to go with them. This time he also won the popular vote, unlike in 2016. But let's put all that in perspective.
Trump took Wisconsin by less than one point. He won Michigan by only a point and a half. He did slightly better in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia with 2- or 3-point wins. You can call this a sweep, but not a landslide or even close to one.
Trump's 3-million vote edge this year was matched by Hillary Clinton in 2016, when she lost in an Electoral College fluke.
In sum, Trump won the popular vote by just over 2 percentage points, a solid win but no earthquake. By contrast, Barack Obama prevailed over John McCain by 7 points in 2008. Four years later, he defeated Mitt Romney by almost 4 points.
Trump's rallies had rows of empty seats toward the end, and his favorability ratings never rose above dismal. It wasn't that Trump was so beloved, apart from his MAGA cult. It was that Democrats fell apart with lousy messaging.
As for coattails, Trump's were frayed. Although Republicans secured a Senate majority, Democrats took four senatorial races in battleground states he won: Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Elissa Slotkin in Michigan and Jacky Rosen in Nevada. The marquee win was Ruben Gallego in Arizona. Gallego was moderately liberal but liberal nonetheless. Arizona's other senator, Mark Kelly, is a Democrat. Gallego replaces Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucused with Democrats.
There were painful Democratic losses, such as Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. But the victor, David McCormick, was a strong candidate who lost six years ago because he wouldn't grovel before Trump and was thus deprived his endorsement. Casey lost by less than one point.
Democrats notably took the governorship in North Carolina, a state that went for Trump. And Angela Alsobrooks easily won the Senate race in Maryland. Maryland is safely Democratic, but she was running against Larry Hogan, a popular former governor and good-guy Republican.
In the New York House races, Democrats reversed their shocking performance in 2022, when they lost five competitive seats. Voters punished them for, among other things, seeming reluctant to incarcerate scary criminals. This included New York's 3rd district on the North Shore of Long Island, despite violent crime there being almost nil.
Voters in this previously safe Democratic district chose the inexplicable George Santos, whose official biography turned out to be a near-total fiction. Democrat Thomas Suozzi replaced him early this year in a special election.
This time around, New York Democrats flipped three Republican districts, while retaining Suozzi's. The victors touted their moderate views and desire for bipartisanship. So, for that matter, did Republican Mike Lawler, who flipped a Democratic seat in 2022 and was just reelected.
There has been much wise commentary on what Democrats have to do. They obviously must stop assuming that their radical activists represent a wide swath of voters. Volume does not equal popular support. They should drop novel ideals on gender that sound like they're trying to rewrite the biology books. They must understand the importance of security to the American people, both at the border and in their towns and cities.
Longtime Democratic strategist James Carville hit the nail when he called "defund the police" the "three stupidest words" in the English language.
One hopes to be wrong, but bets are on that Trumpian chaos will once again unsettle Americans' tranquility. That happened nationally only two years into his first term, after which Democrats rode high.
========
Follow Froma Harrop on Twitter @FromaHarrop. She can be reached at fharrop@gmail.com. To find out more about Froma Harrop and read features by other Creators writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators webpage at www.creators.com.
----
Copyright 2024 Creators Syndicate, Inc.
Comments