Tropical Storm Sara forecast to fall apart over land, while remnant could make its way to Florida

ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Sara is forecast to slog its way into Central America this weekend but lose organization before its remnants make their way into the Gulf of Mexico and get sucked back to the east toward Florida next week.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s 4 p.m. ET advisory Friday, Sara was located about 30 miles southwest of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and 160 miles southeast of Belize City, Belize, moving west at 2 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 115 miles.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca west to the Honduras-Guatemala border, the Bay Islands of Honduras, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, coast of Belize and coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya south to Chetumal.

“On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of Belize early Sunday,” forecasters said. “Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days when the center of Sara moves over water to the north of Honduras.”

The slow storm is forecast to drop as much as 30 inches of rain over parts of northern Honduras, and as much as 15 inches over the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, with the threat of flash flooding and mudslides.

It’s no longer expected to keep tropical system status as it moves over land, so the NHC’s forecast doesn’t extend beyond Monday.

Long-term weather models still project the remnant low pressure system to be steered back to the east through the Gulf of Mexico afterward.

Whatever is left over could be affecting Florida by Wednesday.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne forecasts increased rain chances midweek before a cold front pushes through the area.

“Environmental conditions still look to remain unfavorable for any tropical redevelopment with Sara's remnants over the Gulf, which latest model guidance continues to support,” said NWS meteorologist Derrick Weitlich. “However, as the deeper moisture left over from this system shifts toward Florida ahead of an approaching cold front, rain chances will increase, with the potential for some locally heavy rainfall.”

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has produced 18 named storms, 11 of which have become hurricanes.

The season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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