Consumer confidence among U.S. Hispanics is down.

The Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index from Florida Atlantic University dipped to 85.7 in the first quarter of 2025, down from the 89.6 in the last quarter of 2024.

FAU’s Business and Economic Polling Initiative reports declines in three of the five measures used to calculate the index.

“Persistently high borrowing costs and everyday price pressures — together with talk of new tariffs and a possible recession — are weighing on household outlooks,” Monica Escaleras, chair and director of initiative, said in a statement. “These headwinds are keeping many Hispanic families cautious about the economic outlook in the United States.”

The latest number is roughly at the midpoint between the index’s historic high and its historic low.

The highest it has ever been is 105.9 in the third quarter of 2019. Lowest was 68.3 in the second quarter of 2024, Escaleras said via email.

The first quarter 2025 result of 85.7 is marginally higher than it was in the first quarter of 2024, when it stood at 85.3.

Key factors

There were declines in three forward-looking components of the index:

— Do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off? Better was at 64%, a decrease of 6 points.

— On business conditions in the country, do you think that during the next 12 months we’ll have good times financially, or bad times? Good was at 53%, down 8 points.

— Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely, that in the country as a whole we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression? Good was at 52%, a decrease of 6 percentage points.

One of the five measures — whether it’s a good time to buy big-ticket items such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, or television, and things like that — stood at 51%, down 1 point, which is essentially unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2024.

The fifth question used in the analysis — and the only one that saw improvement in confidence — was the one that took a rear view of what’s happened in the past. Asked if you and your family are better off or worse financially than a year ago, 63% felt better off, an increase of 8 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year.

Demographics

Overall, survey results showed men were more optimistic than women on almost every economic question. For example, men (75%) were more likely than women (53%) to say things would be better financially in the year ahead. Women (47%) were much more likely than men (25%) to say things would be worse in a year.

That was also reflected when looking at the Consumer Sentiment Index, which stood at 78.7 among women and 93.2 among men.

There was even greater divergence among different age groups. People 55 and older were more pessimistic than those who were younger.

Asked about the five year financial outlook, good times were predicted by 57% of people aged 18-34, 66% of people aged 35-54, and 16% of those 55 and older.

Bad times were predicted by 43% of those aged 18-34, 34% of 35- to 54-year-olds and 84% of those 55 and older.

The Consumer Sentiment Index was 92.6 for the youngest group, 97.3 for the middle group, and 48.8 for the oldest group.

Other questions

Answers were varied on three other questions.

Is it a good time to buy a house? 51% said yes, compared to 41% in the last quarter of 2024.

Is it a good time or a bad time to buy a vehicle? 41% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy compared to 51% in the last quarter of 2024.

Do you think the cost of living has gone up, gone down or stayed the same? 68% said it has gone up, compared to 78% in the last quarter of 2024.

Economic environment

The fourth quarter of 2024 included Election Day. The first quarter of 2025 this year included the beginning of the Trump second presidency — but came before April 2, the day the president announced tariffs that sent the financial markets into turmoil.

Many tariffs have been scaled back, but the import taxes on products from China have been dramatically increased. Together, they have created broad economic uncertainty and led to predictions of a recession.

Hispanic voters’ support for Trump surged in the November 2024 election, helping to propel him to a second term.

He received support from 42% of Hispanic voters in 2024, up from 32% in 2020 and 28% in 2016, according to the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. The increase in Hispanic voters’ support from Trump was driven largely by the economy, inflation or higher costs, NBC News reported.

The index

The Business and Economics Polling Initiative, part of FAU’s College of Business, began polling Hispanics nationwide in 2014 to gauge consumer sentiment.

The Hispanic index is modeled after the Consumer Sentiment Index for the overall population long produced by the University of Michigan.

It has been calculating the quarterly index since 2018, Escaleras said via email.

The most recent index is based on surveys of 542 Hispanic adults conducted online and through automated calls to people with landline telephones from Jan.1 through March 31.

The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for the full survey. The margin of error for smaller groups, men and women or different age breakdowns, is higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

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