It was only hours after Myanmar was hit by its strongest earthquake in a century when the ruling military regime resumed bombing parts of the war-torn country where it lost crucial territory over more than a year of intense fighting.

Even as the damage of Friday’s 7.7 magnitude quake was still being assessed, pro-democracy rebel groups reported fresh air strikes in areas close to the epicenter. The official death toll from the temblor has now surpassed 2,700, with over 4,500 injured, a military spokesman said, amid widespread destruction in Mandalay, the country’s second-largest city.

The United Nations condemned the attacks as “completely outrageous and unacceptable” and called for the junta to stop all military operations. The rebels have declared a two-week ceasefire to allow aid to reach victims.

The decision to continue its military offensive during a major natural disaster signals how far the junta is willing to go to stay in power amid an enduring civil conflict in which it is increasingly seen as on the back foot. “We don’t see any sign of deescalation of conflicts at this crisis period,” said Sai Tun Aung Lwin, a crisis analyst and researcher.

Successfully exploiting the crisis, diplomatically or on the ground, could weaken resistance groups making territorial gains across the map. On the other hand, ignoring the urgent humanitarian needs of Myanmar’s own citizens could further entrench its status as a pariah, deterring badly needed international aid at a time the economy is already in free fall.

The ruling State Administration Council’s spokesman, Major General Zaw Min Tun, did not respond to requests seeking comment. He has previously said the military government is busy with rescue efforts, highlighting efforts to find survivors in collapsed buildings.

“It could be a positive or a negative for the military,” said Scot Marciel, a former U.S. ambassador to Indonesia, Myanmar and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. “If they’re seen as completely botching the recovery and support operation, it could reduce what little support they already have.”

‘Unfortunate reality’

So far, much of the support has come from the regime’s biggest backers with Moscow and Beijing sending medical teams ‌and equipment following the junta’s rare plea for foreign assistance on Friday. Myanmar’s broadcaster aired footage of junta chief Min Aung Hlaing thanking Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for sending a rescue team, while the military publicly praised Chinese rescuers for freeing a woman trapped for more than two days.

Shunned and sanctioned by Western nations since the outset of the 2021 coup that ousted civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, even President Donald Trump said the U.S. has been in touch with authorities in Myanmar and will be helping. They are expected to send a small team from the U.S. Agency for International Development, the agency he largely gutted as part of his sweeping cost-cutting campaign.

The regime is exploiting the disaster, using international aid to bolster its political legitimacy, said Kyaw Zaw, spokesman of the National Unity Government President’s Office, which represents the ousted civilian administration. He said the junta has a history of weaponizing aid, often keeping resources for its own benefit instead of distributing them to those in need.

“That’s an unfortunate reality,” he told Bloomberg. “They would love to take any opportunity to present the false legitimacy.”

Friday’s quake has only deepened the suffering of Myanmar’s 50 million people, with the U.S. Geological Survey saying the estimated economic losses could exceed the nation’s GDP. Even before the earthquake there were more than 3 million civilians displaced during a conflict that shows no signs of slowing.

The areas most affected by the earthquake are critical to the country’s logistics network, and the destruction of infrastructure has exacerbated concerns over severe shortages of food, electricity and water. Military operations in disaster areas risk further loss of life and hinder vital humanitarian efforts, the U.N. Special Envoy warned, urging an end to violence.

“Donors should push back hard against junta efforts to block aid using movement restrictions and red tape, and publicly denounce such demands,” said Phil Robertson, director of Asia Human Rights and Labor Advocates. “Donors should also call on the junta to cease attacks against insurgents. There is no room for continuing a war in a disaster zone.”

Modus operandi

As one of Asia’s poorest nations, Myanmar has long struggled to respond to major natural disasters. When Cyclone Nargis struck in 2008, killing more than 100,000 people, the junta initially blocked international aid, fearing foreign influence. It tightly controlled distribution, diverting aid to its own officials while many victims went without critical food, water and medical care.

“It’s the common modus operandi for the military,” said Yanghee Lee, co-founder of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, an advocacy group.

After weeks of international pressure, the junta reluctantly let some foreign groups in, but its slow and ineffective response eroded what little trust remained in the military government. In the years that followed, Myanmar saw growing calls for political change, leading to democratic reforms and a civilian government in 2015 — until the military seized power again in 2021.

To be sure, the scale of active conflicts today makes the picture very much different. Complicating matters further is a pledge by Min Aung Hlaing to hold elections in December even though most of Myanmar is under the control of different ethnic groups. For now, the military is tightly managing access to Mandalay, a city of over a million people, and other heavily damaged areas.

“If you want to send aid and assistance, you have to do it through the junta and it has to be sent through junta-controlled areas,” said Morgan Michaels, research fellow for Southeast Asian security and defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Opposition forces are very concerned about that dynamic.”

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(With assistance from Yasufumi Saito, Kevin Dharmawan and Augusta Saraiva.)

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