Trump's transactional foreign policy leads to flurry of pledges

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has boasted about bringing a more transactional approach to his relationship with world leaders. Just over a week into his second term, many have shown they’re eager to make the deals he treasures.

Saudi Arabia offered to invest more than $600 billion in the next four years while European governments will look to purchase more U.S.-produced liquefied natural gas. Vietnam’s leader suggested his country might buy more Boeing Co. planes. India raised the possibility of importing more oil.

The rush to curry Trump’s favor makes clear just how much global leaders learned their lesson from his first term, when the quickest way to the president’s heart was to offer investment and other deals. Very early in his second term, they’re doubling down on that strategy.

The offers are often accompanied by reassurances that such decisions are in their national interest. Beyond trying to get in Trump’s good graces, nations want to avoid being in the crosshairs of the tariffs he’s already threatened — not only against adversary China but also against U.S. partners Canada, Mexico and Colombia.

“What he’s basically tried to do is create something like a global bidding war for America’s favor — which means Trump’s favor,” said Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington who’s advised U.S. government agencies.

The big challenge for Trump is that while such an approach might succeed in attracting more investment, there’s no sign it will help on bigger, more intractable problems, like ridding the Korean Peninsula of nuclear weapons or resolving the war in Ukraine.

It’s also too early to say whether the approach will pull poorer countries out of the orbit of China, which for years has offered low-interest loans and massive infrastructure investment. Trump’s combination of carrots and sticks may even spur countries to hedge their bets against the U.S. in the long run.

“The danger is that the larger project of American global leadership over the past 80 years has been premised on the idea that the U.S. will not weaponize its power to the fullest in search of narrow transactional gains,” Brands said.

After Trump took office for the second time, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman offered his vow to expand investment and trade by $600 billion. Ever the negotiator, Trump said he wanted the crown prince to push that to $1 trillion.

Later, speaking at a rally in Las Vegas, Trump made clear why he thought Saudi Arabia had made the offer. “It’s because of the election,” he said.

Canada also pledged to spend almost $1 billion on border security after Trump threatened 25% tariffs over what he alleged were excessive flows of illegal drugs and migrants over the northern border — figures which, in fact, pale in comparison to the southern border with Mexico.

Vietnam’s Prime Minister, Pham Minh Chinh, told a crowd at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he was “working on solutions” to try and rebalance his country’s trade surplus with the U.S., including buying more Boeing planes and other high-tech items.

“If playing golf can help bring benefits to my country and my people, then I can play golf all day long,” Pham said, invoking Trump’s favorite hobby.

At the moment, countries are trying to parse the logistics of how they can offer Trump big economic and investment packages to win his favor, one diplomat from an allied country said, asking not to be identified to discuss private deliberations.

El Salvadoran leader Nayib Bukele received praise from White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller as a “very great and strong partner” after he offered “tremendous degrees of cooperation” on migration.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is planning to get off on the right note with Trump in a meeting planned for February by pledging to increase imports of American shale gas, Nikkei has reported.

Trump’s transactional approach and penchant for big deals has led to criticism. During their presidential debate, the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris warned that autocrats would try to “manipulate you with flattery and favors."

There’s also a possibility that threatened countries have already figured out how they might handle him. In Canada, long one of America’s closest allies, politicians vying to succeed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have discussed how to deal with the American president’s threats.

Chrystia Freeland, the finance minister who renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement during the first Trump administration, told Bloomberg this week that the U.S. president “has come to the conclusion that if he can show the rest of the world how mean and tough he can be with his closest partners and allies,” then that will send a message to America’s foes. She warned that “for Trump, weakness is a provocation. I think capitulation is not a negotiating strategy with him.”

“Leaders of other countries aren’t stupid,” said Emma Ashford, a senior fellow with the Stimson Center. “It’s a viable strategy, both for other states who want to win over the president, and for the new administration in trying to get concessions. But it’s probably a strategy with declining returns and one that isn’t going to work on big or difficult issues.”

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(With assistance from Stephanie Lai.)

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