Germany set for February election after Bundestag dissolved

Iain Rogers, Bloomberg News on Dec 27, 2024

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German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved parliament and set the country’s snap election for Feb. 23, formally endorsing a timetable proposed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Scholz, of the center-left Social Democrats, ended his three-party alliance with the Greens and Free Democrats last month, when he sacked FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner in a dispute over government borrowing. The surprise move stripped the chancellor of his majority in the lower house, or Bundestag, and paved the way for a national ballot seven months before the scheduled end of his four-year term.

“Especially in difficult times like now, an effective government and reliable majorities in parliament are needed for stability,” Steinmeier said Friday in a televised statement, cautioning that the next government will have “major challenges” to deal with.

These include addressing Germany’s pesistent economic weakness, Russia’s war on Ukraine, turmoil in the Middle East, the expanding impact of climate change and managing migration flows, he said.

Steinmeier, whose role as head of state is mostly ceremonial, didn’t mention Donald Trump by name, but the U.S. President-elect’s imminent return to the White House is another source of uncertainty looming over Europe.

The German president warned about the threat of external influences to democracy, be they “covert, as was evidently the case recently during the elections in Romania, or open and blatant, as is currently being practiced particularly intensively on the X platform.”

Trump adviser Elon Musk, who owns X, has waded into German politics on several occasions in recent weeks, voicing support for the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD.

“The voting decision is made solely by citizens in Germany who are entitled to vote,” said Steinmeier, a Social Democrat and past vice chancellor, calling on all parties to campaign “with fair and transparent means.”

Voters “expect viable proposals for a positive future for our country, which is having to assert itself in difficult times. And I believe they understand that there are priorities and painful truths involved,” he said.

With just under two months until the ballot, the main opposition conservatives under Friedrich Merz are strides ahead in the polls. Scholz’s SPD is languishing in third place behind the AfD, with the Greens in fourth.

Merz’s center-right CDU/CSU bloc has about 31% support, according to the latest Bloomberg polling average, with the AfD at around 19% and the SPD 16%.

The Greens have about 13%, while Lindner’s FDP, at 4%, is in danger of missing the 5% threshold for getting into parliament.

Lars Klingbeil, an SPD co-leader, said he expects the party to begin narrowing the gap to the conservatives in January and still believes it can emerge as the winner again.

At the last election in 2021, the SPD came from behind in the final weeks of campaigning to secure almost 26% in first place, beating the CDU/CSU, which got 24%.

“More and more citizens will ask themselves: Do we want Olaf Scholz as chancellor or Friedrich Merz?” Klingbeil was quoted as saying in an interview with Tagesspiegel newspaper published Thursday. “We have the better candidate, the better team, the better program.”

Although Steinmeier has formally dissolved the Bundestag, its term will only end with the constitution of the next parliament. Lawmakers will continue to meet and conduct parliamentary business, with two sessions planned before the election.

Scholz’s move to force an early election is a rare occurrence in German politics since the federal republic’s formation in 1949. The national ballot was brought forward only twice in West Germany and only once since reunification in 1990.

Former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, also a Social Democrat, triggered an early vote in 2005 before losing to Angela Merkel, who went on to run the country until Scholz took over in late 2021.