How McConnell could remain a thorn in Trump's side next Congress

WASHINGTON — The feud between Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell could soon spark anew in the next Congress with the Kentucky Republican poised to hold ample sway over the president-elect’s agenda and nominees.

McConnell will leave GOP leadership when the 119th Senate is seated on Jan. 3. But that does not mean the outgoing Senate minority leader will lack power — or the ability to be a thorn in the once and future president’s side.

One Republican senator, who has butted heads before with McConnell, acknowledged the “unique role” the longtime GOP leader is expected to play next year, despite questions about his health after a recent fall. But the senator, granted anonymity to be candid, chuckled as he expressed a desire to steer clear of the Trump-McConnell dynamic.

And Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville, a staunch Trump ally who cut his teeth in the chamber under McConnell’s leadership, said the president-elect and outgoing GOP leader “haven’t always gelled very well over the years.”

“President Trump is a very forceful leader. Sen. McConnell is kind of slower and takes his time, and likes to think about things. And, sometimes, that doesn’t work out when you have two different personalities,” Tuberville said, likening the relationship to a tortoise and hare trying to reach agreement on tactics and strategies.

The likely first votes on which McConnell would need to decide whether to buck or back Trump involve some of his announced law enforcement and national security nominees, as well as the vaccine-skeptical Robert F. Kennedy as Health and Human Services secretary.

“McConnell still represents Kentuckians, and they voted for President Trump. … That’s what I look at. If I were to even question anything about any of … these nominees, I’d get reprimanded from my people back in the state that voted for Donald Trump, as well as me,” Tuberville said. “He doesn’t have the leadership role anymore, but he does have one vote. We’re going to get three to waste.”

Trump and his surrogates have sent mixed messages about whether he would back Republican primary candidates more in line with his “Make America Great Again” movement to challenge sitting senators who oppose his nominees. The former president said at a news conference at Mar-a-Lago earlier this week that those who opposed his picks “for political reasons or stupid reasons … probably should be primaried.” But he also suggested that senators who had “reasonable or fair” reasons for voting against his nominees, “or if they really disagree with somebody,” would not be hit with primary opponents.

Republicans are slated to hold a 53-47 majority in the next Senate, meaning Trump can only lose three GOP senators on each vote to get some of his more contentious nominees confirmed (with incoming Vice President JD Vance, as the Senate president, able to break any 50-50 ties). That would give McConnell, long billed as a master Senate tactician, some cards to play against a president who has harshly criticized him, including dubbing him “Old Crow,” and who insulted his wife — former Trump Cabinet member Elaine Chao — with a racial slur.

Still, as Tuberville alluded to, McConnell would need at least three other Senate Republicans to join him and all Democratic Caucus members on any majority vote against Trump’s picks.

McConnell’s office did not respond to an inquiry seeking comment on how the veteran senator intends to decide on any potential opposition to the 47th president.

But Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, said in a Tuesday email that “while it’s widely believed that McConnell is serving his final term, his allies in the Senate still have elections to win, which significantly weakens McConnell’s influence.”

“With Trump’s popularity among Republicans at an all-time high, McConnell would do well to recognize that this is no longer the Republican Party he once helped shape — it is now the party of Donald J. Trump,” O’Connell said. “While the two may differ on certain Cabinet appointments and the future of U.S. foreign policy, there is no denying that Trump has emerged victorious in defining the party’s direction. McConnell is keenly aware of this shift and would be wise to pick his battles judiciously.”

Yet, McConnell this week fired an opening salvo, penning an essay warning Trump to resist his isolationist instincts.

“The response to four years of weakness must not be four years of isolation. … If the United States continues to retreat, its enemies will be only too happy to fill the void,” McConnell wrote in a Foreign Affairs essay titled “The Price of American Retreat.”

“The administration will face calls from within the Republican Party to give up on American primacy. It must reject them,” added McConnell, who will chair the Rules Committee and Defense Appropriations Subcommittee next Congress. “America will not be made great again by those who simply want to manage its decline.”

McConnell is expected to have plenty of chances to potentially push back on Trump beginning next year. Incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said in a Tuesday floor speech that Friday votes “will be the norm” in the 119th Congress. And if weekend work, at times, is needed to “get the job done,” Thune added, “so be it.”

‘Challenge for Trump’

It’s not just a few Republicans who expect periodic Trump-McConnell fireworks.

“I do think one of the … principles that will be tested is the institutional prerogatives of the Senate, and that includes that confirmation process,” said outgoing Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, who lost reelection in Pennsylvania last month. “And Leader McConnell has been a strong supporter of the institution. I hope that plays out in the confirmation process, and beyond.”

Another veteran Democratic senator, Connecticut’s Richard Blumenthal, said he expects McConnell to “continue to be straightforward, candid, persuasive and influential.”

“He’s respected, not only for his position as the Republican leader, but for the insight and intelligence that he brings to issues that are important,” Blumenthal said. “He has a lot of experience and wisdom on many of these issues.”

One Republican source with Senate ties said that the chamber “will be the bigger challenge for Trump,” noting that all House members will be up for reelection in 2026. “That’s not the case in the Senate, so that’s one reason (why) you’ve seen them go against Trump before,” added the Republican source, who was also granted anonymity to be candid.

Along with McConnell, the GOP source put Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina in the group of Republican senators most likely to sometimes butt heads with Trump. “There’s also Jim Justice,” the source said of the West Virginia governor elected last month to succeed retiring independent Sen. Joe Manchin III. “We’ll see about him. He was a Democrat not that long ago.”

Other sources added Todd Young of Indiana, Joni Ernst of Iowa and even sometimes-Trump golfing partner Lindsey Graham of South Carolina among the GOP senators who, on specific issues important to them and their respective states, might deviate from Trump.

G. William Hoagland, a former senior GOP Senate aide, predicted a sometimes-bumpy path toward confirmation for some of Trump’s nominees.

“The White House’s Senate liaison will have their hands full with the confirmation process, hearings and counting votes, and possibly the uncomfortable job of telling POTUS when the votes are not there for his Cabinet picks or (department and agency) positions,” Hoagland, now with the Bipartisan Policy Center, said in a recent email.

James Braid, a former Vance aide whom Trump tapped to lead the White House’s legislative affairs office, will need “to work with John Thune’s office quickly to establish that trust and can convince them he speaks for the President,” Hoagland said.

“But given the volatility of Trump,” he added, “that may not be an easy task.”

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