Trump's return could be bad for WA trade and workers, good for tech

For some Washington business leaders, Donald Trump’s return to the White House revives hopes of fresh cuts to corporate taxes and a host of regulations.

Tech company leaders hoping to gain Trump’s good graces congratulated him on his win. Wall Street analysts expressed optimism that his administration won’t put guardrails on the tech industry.

But Trump has also called for tariffs as high as 20% on all items imported into the United States, and as high as 60% for goods from China, causing trepidation for ports, shipping companies and a Washington state agricultural industry still recovering from the tariffs Trump imposed in 2018.

Tariffs are taxes placed on imported goods, raising the price of a specific product exported to the United States. Countries targeted by U.S. tariffs fire back with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, making American products more expensive in their markets. Costs are generally passed to consumers if the imported products aren’t replaced by domestically produced alternatives.

Bryan Gonzalez, with Seattle-based agricultural export firm FC Bloxom & Co., said during the first Trump administration the company was kicked out of the Chinese citrus market. Because of foreign tariffs imposed in response to Trump’s, it could no longer compete against other growing regions like Egypt. It still hasn’t recovered.

“I fear the potential effects of new tariffs being issued because the counter tariffs will be devastatingly crushing in the highly competitive modern global commodities market that we do business in,” Gonzalez said. “They will likely result in similar harm to what U.S. agriculture has already suffered through.”

But he believes there are some potential benefits for his business from a second Trump administration.

If there was another strike among port workers, like the three-day stoppage on the East Coast earlier this year, Trump would most likely try to end it as quickly as possible.

“The proposed corporate tax cuts are also very nice,” he said. “Paying less in taxes is always a pleasant benefit.”

The Northwest Seaport Alliance, a partnership between the Port of Seattle and Port of Tacoma, does not want fresh tariffs.

Port of Tacoma Commissioner Kristin Ang said the trade relationships with countries like China are complex but tariffs should be the last resort.

“In Washington, almost 1 million jobs are supported by international trade and China is our biggest trade partner by far,” Ang said. “There has been an added burden of $400-$1,500 per household each year in the U.S. since 2018, from these tariffs and that could get much higher if more are applied.”

Port of Seattle Commissioner Ryan Calkins likened further tariffs to Wile E. Coyote painting a fake tunnel on a rock only for him to run into it.

“That’s sort of what a 20% across the board tariff would do,” Calkins said. “It ends up hurting you more than anyone else.”

For tech, Wall Street’s eyes are on the industry’s favorite new word: artificial intelligence. Trump said he’ll repeal an executive order made by President Joe Biden in October 2023 to guide the development and release of AI products.

“Trump could replace Biden’s executive order with something that focuses on articulating a few core principles and is a more market-oriented, open and less regulated approach that allows the biggest AI companies to continue to grow,” said K.C. Halm, a partner at the law firm Davis Wright Tremaine and co-chair of the firm’s technology, communications, privacy and security practice.

Davis Wright Tremaine has worked with Amazon and Microsoft.

The CEOs of some of the largest tech companies that have AI ambitions lined up on social media to congratulate Trump on his win with similar sentiments, including Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.

“Congratulations President Trump, we’re looking forward to engaging with your administration to drive innovation forward that creates new growth and opportunity for the United States,” Nadella said in a post on X.

Jassy also posted on X that Amazon was “looking forward” to working with Trump’s administration.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos was one of the first to chime in with a positive reaction.

A repeal of Biden’s executive order wouldn’t mean AI companies will have a bigger sandbox to play in as safeguards could come in from the state and local levels, creating a patchwork of regulations.

States like Colorado and Utah have already established AI statutes and California has passed several AI-focused bills. Halm said he wouldn’t be surprised if states like Texas and Illinois attempt to regulate AI.

“I think it will be a significant hindrance to innovation,” he said. “These products are not really developed in a way you can modify or tweak them and limit their operations based on the jurisdiction.”

Trump coming into the White House will also change the makeup of the National Labor Relations Board, the independent federal agency that enforces U.S. labor laws.

Two of Washington’s biggest companies, Boeing and Starbucks, have been in different public union battles. Boeing Machinists recently ended a strike and accepted a new contract, while Starbucks baristas have fought for representation for the past two years.

The NLRB has also weighed in on union pushes from Amazon warehouse workers in states like New York and Alabama. Workers in New York won a union election in 2022.

Starbucks Workers United, the union representing Starbucks employees, reacted to the election results on X in a post that said, “Now is the most important time to be organized.”

The NLRB has swung like a pendulum between presidential administrations. Trump appointees worked to reverse Obama administration actions. Biden appointees did the same to Trump administration cases.

“I would not be shocked if the NLRB’s general counsel was relieved of her duties on Inauguration Day, as that’s what Biden did with Trump’s,” said Peter Finch, a former NLRB attorney now with Davis Wright Tremaine, where he works in collective bargaining.

Finch said a Trump NLRB could balance the interests of employers or employees, but he expected it to hone in on cases that examine what’s hard bargaining by employers and what crosses the line into unfair practices.

The NLRB said in an emailed statement that General Counsel Jennifer A. Abruzzo “plans to continue to robustly enforce the National Labor Relations Act and govern labor management relations during the remainder of her term,” which ends in February.