How Trump found an unprecedented path to victory in Michigan

LANSING, Mich. — Former President Donald Trump paired Republican advantages in rural Michigan with significant gains in Democratic strongholds and an expanding coalition to win Michigan in Tuesday's election, as voters in the state rose up against President Joe Biden's handling of the economy.

Trump, who had already secured enough electoral votes to get another term in the White House, was declared Michigan's winner at about 1 p.m. Wednesday. He got about 50% of the vote in the state, while Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris got 48%. Trump received at least 2.79 million votes in Michigan, beating his 2016 tally by more than 500,000 votes, according to unofficial results.

Trump's vote total was the largest ever amassed by a Republican candidate in the state, said Bill Ballenger, a longtime Michigan political commentator and former state senator.

Out of the last nine presidential elections, a Republican has carried Michigan only twice, with Trump, who was known as a businessman and reality TV star before his venture into politics, being the winner each of the two times: 2016 and 2024.

"He was able to reach voters that no other Republican has ever been able to reach," said Stu Sandler, a Republican political consultant with the firm OnMessage.

In Democrat-heavy Detroit, Michigan's largest city and where 78% of the population is Black, Trump got 19,667 votes this year, up 52% from the 12,889 he got four years ago. Meanwhile, Harris got about 8% fewer votes in Detroit than Biden in 2020. Eight years ago, Trump got 7,682 votes in Detroit against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Detroit reflected how Democrats failed to achieve the vote margins they hoped to get in an array of places, including Kent and Oakland counties. In Macomb County's Sterling Heights, where about 27% of the population was born outside the U.S., according to Census data, Trump won 39 out of 40 precincts in unofficial results.

GOP backers of Trump said his campaign benefited from an unrelenting focus on infrequent voters — labeled "low propensity voters by the Republican's team — and frustration with the direction of the country under Biden, who dropped his reelection bid on July 21.

Trump had tapped into angst and anger against the "aristocracy," said Jase Bolger, a Republican former Michigan House speaker.

"The affordability of housing, groceries and utilities, the safety of neighborhoods and the fairness of protecting girls sports were key issues," Bolger said.

Among Michigan voters who cast ballots for Trump, 43% said the economy was the topic that mattered most in deciding their pick for president, according to National Election Pool exit polling for media outlets conducted by Edison Research. About 2,855 Michigan voters were surveyed about their views on the exit polling.

The second most popular answer for Trump supporters in Michigan was immigration at 22%.

A spike in inflation in 2022 and the impacts of rising costs on families were concerns Democrats struggled to respond to on the campaign trail. Trump won in Michigan among those who said they were mothers, among those who said they were fathers and among voters without any level of college education, according to the exit polling.

Trump won about 55% of male voters in Michigan, while Harris won about 53% of female voters, according to exit polling. Some pundits had expected Harris, who would have become the first female president and vowed to protect abortion rights nationally, to exceed that margin among women.

Issues that hit home

In Michigan, Trump campaigned heavily in opposition to electric vehicle mandates and in support of forging peace in the Middle East, a direct attempt to reach out to Arab American voters upset with the Biden administration's handling of Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza.

Mohammad Mohsin, 18, of Bloomfield Township, said he voted for Trump because he thought the Republican was better from a business perspective and because he didn't like Biden's response to the ongoing war in Gaza, and how the administration gave money to Israel. Mohsin is Muslim and said he believes Trump will bring change to Gaza.

Trump won Dearborn, the nation’s largest Arab-majority city, 42.5%-36%, over Harris.

Trump achieved bigger wins in the wide majority of Michigan counties than he got in 2020. As of about 12:30 p.m. Wednesday, Trump's margin of victory had increased from 2020 in 73 of Michigan's 83 counties.

In the Upper Peninsula's small Keweenaw County, Trump went from 862 votes in 2020 to 896 in 2024, according to the unofficial tally. In Wayne County, Michigan's most populous county and a Democratic stronghold, Trump cut into Harris' base by getting at least 22,000 more votes than he did in 2020 by reaching out for support in majority-Black Detroit and from Arab American voters. He visited Dearborn a few days before Election Day.

A wide variety of racial and demographic groups, including Hispanics, had moved in Trump's favor, said Adrian Hemond, CEO of the Lansing-based consulting firm Grassroots Midwest, who previously worked for Democrats in the state Legislature. In the Michigan exit polling, Trump won 62% of Hispanic voters.

Voters had a negative view of the economy and were fatigued by Biden, who stayed in the race for the presidency until the final three months.

“The biggest problem with the Democratic campaign this time was that old man thought he was going to waltz into a second term because 'Donald Trump is bad,'" said Hemond, referring to Biden, who is 81 years old.

John Yob, a political consultant who has worked with Michigan Republicans for years, credited state GOP Chairman Pete Hoekstra's efforts and said the Trump team had focused on winning over undecided voters and voters who were historically unlikely to cast ballots, instead of channeling resources to activating the base of the party.

"The team wisely noticed what happened in 2016 with nontraditional voters turning out in waves and, in 2024, put financial resources and volunteer manpower behind an organized effort to turn those voters out in 2024," Yob said. There were signs the strategy had succeeded in Trump's collection of 2.79 million votes.

In Macomb County, known for its blue-collar and swing voters, Trump won by 8 percentage points in 2020 against Biden, 53%-45%. This time around, Trump was ahead in the unofficial results by 14 points, 56%-42%.

Trump's victory was a boon for the Michigan Republican Party, which has faced financial struggles and leadership change in the past year.

Hoekstra, a former U.S. House member, became the state chairman in January.

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(Staff Writers Melissa Nann Burke and Hannah Mackay contributed.)

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