Democrats dust off 2018 playbook with attacks on potential Medicaid cuts

WASHINGTON — In 2010, opposition to the health care law known as the Affordable Care Act helped fuel the tea party wave that led to Republicans flipping the House. Eight years later, it was opposition to the Republican efforts to repeal that law that contributed to a Democratic takeover of the chamber.

Now, months after a bruising election that saw Donald Trump and Republicans swept back into power, Democrats are seeking to revive that playbook ahead of the 2026 midterms, accusing Republicans of targeting Medicaid to help finance their legislative agenda.

“In 2018, there was a clear lesson: taking away health care from Americans is a punishable offense and will cause you to lose your job,” Meredith Kelly, a partner at Declaration Media who worked at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during that cycle, said in an email. “But clearly, House Republicans are either too ignorant or too loyal to Donald Trump to learn from their past mistakes, and they will surely pay the price next November.”

House Republicans on Tuesday adopted a budget resolution meant to unlock the process for enacting Trump’s legislative agenda. The blueprint would allow for up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, provided Congress cuts $2 trillion from federal spending over the next decade. Tuesday’s vote is a first step for Republicans, as the House and Senate must reconcile their separate budget resolutions and craft a reconciliation bill, a process that could take several weeks at best.

Democrats have largely focused their attacks on Medicaid, a program that provides health insurance for more than 70 million lower-income people. While the budget resolution doesn’t specifically call for cuts to the program, it charges the House Energy and Commerce Committee with finding $880 billion in savings over 10 years, and Medicaid is the clearest target for cuts.

Republicans say they won’t target the program beyond eliminating waste, fraud and abuse.

“Medicaid is hugely problematic because it has a lot of fraud, waste and abuse. Everybody knows that,” Speaker Mike Johnson said during a Tuesday news conference. “No one else has said anything else, except the Democrats, who have ads out there lying about the intention here.”

The DCCC released a memo this week arguing that “any so-called moderate House Republican who votes in favor of this budget will be unable to escape the political fallout for the next two years.”

Protect Our Care, a Democratic-aligned group that focuses on health care, launched new ads as part of a $10 million Medicaid-focused campaign after Tuesday’s House vote. The spots target California Reps. David Valadao, Ken Calvert and Young Kim; Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse; Arizona Rep. David Schweikert; and Pennsylvania Reps. Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry.

Valadao was among the House Republicans who lost in 2018, although he reclaimed his Central Valley seat two years later and has remained a Democratic target since. Mackenzie, meanwhile, flipped a seat north of Philadelphia last year, while Perry, a former House Freedom Caucus chair, won reelection to his Central Pennsylvania district by 1 point — his narrowest margin to date.

Newhouse represents a GOP stronghold but voted to impeach Trump in 2021. He defeated a fellow Republican by 6 points in November.

“Medicaid is popular across the board with voters, no matter where they live or who they voted for,” Leslie Dach, the chair of Protect Our Care, said in a statement.

Meanwhile, House Majority Forward, the nonprofit arm of the House Democratic-aligned super PAC House Majority PAC, on Tuesday released polling from late January that found 77% of registered voters “oppose removing low-income children from Medicaid.” The group has also released polling over the past week showing some House Republicans from swing districts with approval ratings underwater.

Attempts to tie vulnerable Republican lawmakers to cuts to Medicaid and other social safety programs such as food stamps have spawned demonstrations at their district offices.

In Colorado’s purple 8th District, Republican freshman Gabe Evans faced a backlash even before the vote. Nearly 20% of his constituents rely on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program, according to a report by the Center for Children and Families at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy.

“The district is the heartland of America,” said Shad Murib, chair of the Colorado Democratic Party. “You’ve got farms and ranches. You’ve got energy producers. You’ve got hardworking Coloradans who too often see the government fail them. And with Gabe Evans, they were hoping that they would find somebody who might champion them. Unfortunately, he sold them a bad deal because so far he’s done nothing but support Donald Trump.”

Republicans have said Democrats are misleading the public by spreading panic that the GOP will slash Medicaid. On Wednesday, Evans posted a video on social media defending his vote, pledging to protect Medicaid while also calling for states to root out “waste, fraud and abuse” from the program and stop “funding health care for illegal immigrants.”

Other Republicans from battleground districts reiterated their opposition to cutting Medicaid.

“Tonight’s vote was just a procedural step to start federal budget negotiations and does NOT change any current laws,” Rep. Rob Bresnahan Jr., who flipped a working-class district in northeastern Pennsylvania last year, said in a statement. “I will fight to protect working-class families in Northeastern Pennsylvania and stand with President Trump in opposing gutting Medicaid.”

Valadao acknowledged in a floor speech before the vote Tuesday that he’s heard from “countless constituents” in his Hispanic-majority district in California’s Central Valley who say they can afford health care only through programs like Medicaid.

“I will not support a final reconciliation bill that risks leaving them behind,” he said.

During last week’s congressional recess, some GOP members who’ve embraced Trump’s agenda faced intense backlash from constituents at town hall meetings. Voters expressed anger about the president’s chaotic first month in office and the sweeping cuts undertaken at his direction by billionaire Elon Musk through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee dismissed the protests at district offices and boisterous town halls as “manufactured productions” orchestrated by “far-left crazies and their mega-donors.”

“Democrats are running the same playbook of resorting to shameless fear-mongering and outright lies because they have nothing else to offer the American people,” Mike Marinella said via email. “This is a disgusting, pathetic attempt to distract voters from their failures, and they know it.”