Faced with resistance from Russia and China, uncertainty from Washington and his own apprehensions about returning blue-helmet peacekeepers to gang-plagued Haiti, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres is recommending to stick with the current multinational security support mission rather than pushing for a full-scale U.N. peacekeeping operation.

In a letter sent to the U.N. Security Council dated Monday, Guterres recommends that the rules of engagement — which govern the circumstances under which weapons can be fired — for the current Kenya-led Multinational Security Support mission, or MSS, be strengthened. He is also calling for the creation of a U.N. support office to provide logistics and operational support to the mission.

“When fully deployed and adequately resourced, the MSS represents the most viable solution to meet the medium-term goal of reducing gang territorial control,” the secretary-general said in the letter, obtained by the Miami Herald. The MSS’s comparative advantage over a traditional U.N. peacekeeping mission, he added, “lies in its robust use-of-force mandate to undertake joint targeted operations against gangs with the national police.”

Neither the U.N., nor the multinational mission, nor the United States, which pushed for the mission’s formation, have ever publicly said under what circumstances the Kenyans are allowed to use force. The lack of information about the rules of engagement and the mission’s perceived lack of aggressiveness have led Haitians to label the Kenyans as “tourists.”

Late last year, as the MSS faced financial and personnel constraints and gangs gained more ground in Port-au-Prince and the neighboring Artibonite region, Guterres was asked by the Security Council to weigh options for the U.N.’s role in Haiti. At the time, the Biden administration favored transitioning the Kenya-led mission into a formal peacekeeping operation, but the proposal was met with resistance from China and Russia. The two nations are among five on the Security Council with veto power, and have been critical of the role of past U.N. peacekeeping operations in Haiti, the last of which ended in 2017.

Last week, while attending a regional summit of Caribbean leaders in Barbados, Guterres announced that he would propose a structure similar to the model employed in Somalia, where an U.N.-authorized force, led by the African Union, has been fighting the al-Shabaab terrorist group since 2007. At the time of his public announcement, Guterres made no mention of the blue-helmets peacekeeping force, which he finally addressed in his letter.

“At this stage, transitioning to a U.N. peacekeeping operation is not assessed as a feasible option,” Guterres said. ”Such a transition could be considered once significant progress has been made in substantially reducing gang territorial control.”

Guterres’ letter paints a bleak picture of the situation in Haiti, where on Wednesday tires burned along John Brown Avenue in the capital as fresh attacks by armed gangs continued to force a massive exodus from neighborhoods.

On Tuesday, an attack in the Delmas 30 area left homes torched and at least 15 dead, fleeing residents said. Across town in Tabarre, where the U.S. Embassy is located, a local morgue held 15 bodies from recent attacks, which have also left schools and hospitals under siege.

“To isolate gangs and secure key areas, particularly in metropolitan Port-au-Prince and lower Artibonite, the MSS should be reinforced with specialized police units to protect critical infrastructure, such as seaports, airports, oil terminals and major roadways,” Guterres said, adding that the mission also needs “a clear mandate to seize and collect, record and dispose of arms and ammunition and other illicit materiel, in coordination with the national police.”

Daniel Forti, a senior U.N. analyst with the International Crisis Group who has seen Guterres’ proposal, said the plan speaks to the secretary-general’s overall reluctance on peacekeepers. Guterres has been concerned about deploying peacekeepers back to Haiti and been averse “to put peacekeepers in situations where there’s no peace to keep.”

“This proposal is about giving the MSS and the troops that are deployed under it reinforcements on the logistics side, whether it is fuel, whether it is new bases,” Forti said. “All of those things are important, but it doesn’t grapple with some of the key operational questions about whether the MSS has enough troops, whether engagements are appropriate for the current moment and whether it has enough lethal equipment to do that.”

The force currently has 1,000 of the planned 2,500 uniformed personnel originally envisioned, after El Salvador, Guatemala and Kenya deployed additional troops at the start of the year. The mission and the Haiti National Police have also received equipment from the U.S., which has provided more than $620 million, the lion’s share, to finance the effort.

Despite those efforts and the Haitian government’s increases in police funding, gangs have continued to gain ground, taking advantage of both a protracted political crisis, infighting in the government and an open conflict between the police chief and members of his command. Last year, more than 5,600 people were killed in gang-related violence and the number of Haitians internally displaced skyrocketed from 330,000 in 2021, following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, to over a million.

More than 1,000 schools have been closed due to violence, depriving approximately 200,000 children of education as of January. Only 28% percent of in-patient health facilities are fully operational nationwide, while 54% have closed and 18% operate at reduced capacity.

“An additional challenge facing the country is the impending forced return of a significant number of Haitians, adding pressure to the volatile environment,” Guterres said, referring to the Trump administration’s decision to roll back temporary immigration protections for over a half million Haitians in the U.S. and ongoing deportations from the neighboring Dominican Republic.

The secretary-general also noted that Haiti’ 1,100 miles of coastline leaves it vulnerable as armed groups expand their criminal enterprise to the ocean where the Haitian Coast Guard only has three working patrol boats.

“Gangs have increasingly leveraged profits from organized crime — such as kidnapping, extortion, and drug trafficking, to gain financial independence,” he said. “Gang attacks have also become more organized, reflecting greater planning, tactical sophistication, and access to heavy weaponry.”

All of this has led to an “abrupt” shift in Haiti’s security landscape in recent years that has strained the police, requiring a transition from managing civil unrest to complex anti-gang operation that current recruitment, training, and procurement efforts fail to meet, ompounded by a sharp rise in police attrition, Guterres said.

Here are some of the details of Guterres’ proposal:

— Provide comprehensive logistic and operational support to the MSS through a new U.N. Support Office. The office would be funded through both U.N. assessed funding and voluntary contributions. Areas of support might include accommodations, food, fuel and water, ground transportation, movement control, aviation, medical capability in Haiti and outside including Medevac, engineering and facility management support, general supply support, communications and information technology.

— Scale up the MSS. Guterres doesn’t give numbers but says the mission needs to be expanded and strengthened with additional military-grade capabilities and lethal equipment.

— Provide a limited, non-lethal support package and capacity building for the national police. This would be funded mostly through voluntary contributions.

— Strengthening the intelligence gathering and analytical capabilities of the MSS and the Haiti National Police. Drone surveillance, financed by peacekeeping assessed funding, would enable the MSS and national police to conduct effective operations.

— A strengthened U.N. Integrated Office in Haiti. Among its priorities the office would focus on the children, youth and women recruited by gangs. It would provide support to Haitian authorities in the jailing and prosecution of high-risk detainees.

— A U.N. Integrated Sanctions Support Unit: Guterres acknowledges that U.N. sanctions and an arms embargo have not been effective, and recommends the creation of a dedicated unit to raise awareness of sanctions, and train and assist the authorities as well as the MSS, in implementing sanctions.

— Equipment management: The MSS relies on donors for essential equipment, but many of its armored vehicles are ill-suited for the urban environment of Port-au-Prince. Shortages of spare parts have shut down half of combat vehicles. Guterres recommends establishing a joint mechanism with the government to coordinate and verify the management of equipment provided to the national police by partners, such as tactical vehicles, firearms and ammunition.

Last week, after Guterres privately briefed Caribbean Community leaders about the proposal, leaders were unable to reach a consensus on the plan, an indication of what he may face in the U.N. if some countries view his recommendations as a watered-down version of a peacekeeping operation. A traditional peacekeeping operation would provide critically needed helicopters, military soldiers and guaranteed funding.

Human Rights Watch, which initially was critical about past U.N. missions in Haiti, said this week that Guterres’ should heed the Haitian government’s request for a formal peacekeeping operation given the catastrophic situation and large-scale gangs attacks.

“The U.N. has the skills and know-how to do it again while avoiding the mistakes of past U.N. operations in Haiti — provided it has the resources,” the human-rights group said.

Forti, the Crisis Group analyst, said the secretary-general’s plan still relives on voluntarily contributions, which so far have amounted to $110.8 million, far less than what is needed.

“There are real questions,” he said, about whether Guterres’ political compromise, “actually provides the pathway to a sustainable security solution, and whether that creates the ground for any of the political work that needs to take place.

“There is a big question about whether this model will incentivize the countries that need to be there, or have the capabilities and expertise to be there to actually sign up for the MSS now,” he added. “This may help with getting more funding, some additional capacities that the MSS doesn’t have right now. But it leaves this fundamental question about whether this approach is just a band aid.”

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